NEALE DONNELLEY previews some of the Group 1 races on VICTORIA DERBY DAY at Flemington this weekend:
Group 1 $1,000,000 COOLMORE STUD STAKES. (1200m):
THE Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes has quickly established itself as a genuine sire-making race and Australia’s biggest trainers and breeders are well aware of this fact.
Perhaps the most significant pointer to this is on display at Flemington tomorrow in this year’s renewal of the race.
Just five years ago, in 2013, Chris Waller’s crack colt Zoustar gave legendary jockey Jim Cassidy his 100th Group 1 win in the Coolmore.
Fast-forward to this year’s renewal of the $1 million race for three-year-olds and from Zoustar’s first crop we have three of the 10 runners.
Golden Rose runner-up ZOUSAIN ($3.90), Run To The Rose winner LEAN MEAN MACHINE ($10) and Magic Millions winning filly SUNLIGHT ($4.80) are all by Zoustar.
Yes, just 10 runners for $1 million, but we have all the best young sprinting talent in the country engaged.
The fact Tony McEvoy has taken the plunge with his brilliant filly SUNLIGHT and decided to tackle the boys, has given this race a real X-factor.
There are many who believe SUNLIGHT should have won her last start in the Group 1 $1 million Manikato Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley last Friday night.
She was slowly away, held-up and knocked down and simply endured a horror run before finishing officially seventh behind Brave Smash.
The best tip you can get is that McEvoy has had no hesitation in backing the filly up against the best colts in the land.
Waller’s ZOUSAIN is not surprisingly favourite, having not raced since his brave and narrow second to super colt The August Sun in the Group 1 $1 million Golden Rose.
That is the best form going into this race – unquestionably.
Graeme Begg’s WRITTEN BY ($4.20) has done nothing wrong throughout his career, and he’s right on track given his soft win in the $350,000 Blue Sapphire at Caulfield two weeks ago.
Begg has targeted this race all Spring for WRITTEN BY and he goes into the race with an absolute sense of timing.
Brisbane colt SESAR ($7.50) is an intriguing runner, having scored a stunning last-to-first win first-up in the Group 2 Roman Consul Stakes (1200m) at Randwick on heavy ground.
Before that he charged home to run fourth in the Group 1 J. J. Atkins in Brisbane behind The August Sun during the Brisbane Winter Carnival.
If this race becomes a last-man-standing affair, SESAR will be very strong and very dangerous late.
The other ‘unknown’ runner is Team Hawkes DIPLOMATICO ($8.00), a beautifully-bred Snitzel colt who has won two of just three starts.
He was stunning when winning the Listed Brian Crowley Stakes at Randwick last time and this huge step-up in grade may not be beyond him.
Fabulous contest but I will be having something on WRITTEN BY each-way.
Group 1 $2,000,000 VICTORIA DERBY. (2500m).
A START in Australia’s great race – the Melbourne Cup – awaits Victoria Derby favourite THINKIN’ BIG should be win the Blue Riband tomorrow.
Trainers Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have declared THINKIN’ BIG will line-up against the world’s best two-mile handicappers should he win the Derby.
This bold free-running son of the great High Chaparral comes into this Derby with the strongest and clearly the most impressive form.
His last start demolition of a quality field in the Group 3 $350,000 Norman Robinson at Caulfield was indicative of better things to come.
His form is Sydney prior was also outstanding and the fact he makes his own luck either in front or close to the speed, is a comfort to punters wanting to back him to win the Derby.
TABCORP has THINKIN’ BIG currently the $3.30 public-elect ahead of Godolphin’s ARAMAYO ($6.00), and last week’s AAMI VASE winner Stars Of Carrum ($8.00).
ARAMAYO was just beaten when second in the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) at Randwick before his solid third behind STARS OF CARRUM last week, when wide and making late ground.
Darren Weir’s EXTRA BRUT ($9.50) has a fabulous chance back at Flemington. He started favourite in the Norman Robinson but struggled on the turns at Caulfield.
Back to headquarters where he scored an impressive win previously, and EXTRA BRUT makes strong appeal at the odds.
Tony McEvoy’s FAROOQ ($10) is another with genuine claims.
This son of the great Frankel was outstanding when a close second to HOME GROUND ($21) in the Geelong Derby Trial at his last start.
He has already been heavily backed from $17 into his current quote of $10.
STARS OF CARRUM was very strong at The Valley last week narrowly beating SAVOIE ($10), and he’s bred to run a Derby trip being by Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente.
Team Hayes’ has the quaintly-named MICKEY BLUE EYES ($16) engaged from barrier three and he backs-up from an eye-catching fifth at The Valley last week.
This is clearly a Derby with good depth and I’m keen to back THINKIN’ BIG and Tony McEvoy’s FAROOQ as a saver.
Group 1 $1,000,000 KENNEDY MILE. (1600m).
PUNTERS face a real challenge trying to sort out tomorrow’s Group 1 $1 million Kennedy Mile given the size and depth of runners in the field.
Grand old Godolphin servant HARTNELL ($6.00) again heads the weights for a big mile handicap in either Melbourne or Sydney.
His form is outstanding with a win in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap (1600m) in Sydney followed by a second to Land Of Plenty in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap (1600m).
HARTNELL will carry an energy-sapping 59kgs with Hugh Bowman on board.
Darren Weir’s LAND OF PLENTY ($4.80) deserves to be favourite off the back of his last start runaway win in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap.
He rises 2.5kgs for that win but still gets into this race with a winnable weight of 55.5kgs.
Champion Sydney trainer Chris Waller has a strong hand with five runners, headed by emerging mare NOIRE ($11).
She has been impressive lately, winning the Group 2 Shannon Quality in Sydney before a luckless seventh in the Toorak behind Land Of Plenty.
She gets into this race on the minimum (52kgs) with champion rider Kerrin McEvoy in the saddle.
Waller also has the enigmatic LIFE LESS ORDINARY ($34) who is capable of winning just about any race on his day, as well as COMIN’ THROUGH ($26) and MISTER SEA WOLF ($21).
Newcastle mentor Kris Lees will put the saddler on stable stalwart LE ROMAIN ($13), and this six-year-old is always a chance in these handicap races.
The winner of almost $4 million in stakes ran brilliantly last time when fourth behind Redzel in the $13 million The Everest (1200m) at Randwick last start.
Darren Weir is backing-up last week’s Crystal Mile winner from The Valley, CLIFF’S EDGE ($8.50), and this on-pace warrior is always a winning hope.
PEACEFUL STATE ($9.00) is another Weir runner with a genuine chance given the sense of perfect timing into this race.
He is having his fourth run back from a break and his last start fifth behind Sircconi in the Group 3 Moonga Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield was an eye-catcher.
Godolphin’s BEST OF DAYS ($9.50) has drawn gate 1 and comes into the race off the back of a last start win in the Group 3 Coongy at Caulfield.
Just about every runner in this handicap mile has some sort of winning chance given the right run and right luck in running.
All this fact does is multiple the difficulty factor for punters. For mine NOIRE at the $11 has an each-way appeal, and I’ll be having something small at big odds on SIRCCONI.
