Flemington Nov 5 Selections & Comments by Peter Ellis (Updated)

Race 1:

1. Cut It Out [3]
2. Muntaseera [8]
3. Araaf [2]
4. Thala [13]

 

Race 2:

1. Phaistos (7)
2. Bravo Tango (3)
3. East Indiaman (5)
4. William Thomas (1)

Phaistos returns from a successful winter campaign lumping 60.5kg to victory Rosehill 1500m before fast finishing 3^rd 1600m this course.
Bravo Tango, talented 5yo made it three wins in six starts this year in feature sprint at Benalla before stout finishing 2^nd Usain Bowler Caulfield 1400m.

East Indiaman, stakes winning 4yo needed run 3^rd in-form Kemalpasa Parks 1250m then always in control when stepping to this trip at Cranbourne

William Thomas is unknown beyond 1200m but has never gone better running away from classy Lyre Caulfield 1100m before solid efforts at Cranbourne and the Valley.
Al Passem [2] lost form after “gut buster” in last year’s Toorak but latest 5^th Valley 1200m was encouraging.

 

Race 3:

1. One More Try (2)
2. Romani Girl (6)
3. Aliferous (4)
4. Sure Knee [7]

One More Try ploughed through the mud when successful in this last year and is going equally as well placing behind smart Fabric over 1400m before excellent 4^th Caulfield Gr. 3 1600m.

Romani Girl had excuses when 9^th in Aust. Oaks [2400m] but is better suited this distance range and was impressive when running away from her rivals Randwick 1500m/

Aliferous was placed behind Mr Quickie, Vow And Declare in Qld Derby following a luckless 5^th in Oaks.Ready to fire following three starts from a break. Over the odds.

Sure Knee was ridden too close 8^th [3/1]stablemate Romany Girl last time but did work home stylishly on resumption and does like Flemington.

Seewhatshebrings [10] has come back stronger this campaign scoring twice at the provincials before fighting head 2^nd emerging Amangirl Valley 1600m while Maracaibo [11] adds value to exotics.

 

Race 4:

1. Shared Ambition (3)
2. Gayatri (7)
3. Sin To Win (2)
4. Serenade The Stars (10)

Shared Ambition, Northern Hemisphere bred 3yo who has been ultra-impressive in his two local appearances. Defied a muddling tempo Caulfield 1800m before dominating over 2400msame course.

Gayatri, progressive 5yo too strong for stablemate Dabiyr Rosehill 2400m then wide and off early when tackling Group 3 same route.

Sin To Win floundered in heavy last year but since performed well in staying events at Flemington and was an eye catching 4^th in Brisbane Cup.

Serenade The Stars, English import lost his way after scoring over 2500m here 16 months ago but he has been much more genuine this campaign while Exemplar [5] and Kentucky Diva [13] have place claims.

Race  5:

1. Can’t Be Done (3)
2. Athiri (14)
3. Mclaren (1)
4. Hawker Hurricane (2)

Can’t Be Done created a good impression in first campaign outpointing smart King Of Hastings at Caulfield after cantering home on debut Sale 1100m.

Athiri was competitive against the best juveniles last season and has performed well down the  Flemington straight. Did it tough 4^th California Zimbol, Loving Gaby 4^th Caulfield 1200m.
Mclaren showed plenty of promise last season winning Rosehill Gr. 3 on debut. Disregard first-up flop in Caulfield sprint when in trouble at start. Suited back against own age.

Hawker Hurricane is clearly better at 1000m and 1100m as evidenced by latest 2^nd Taraayef in listed event this course.

Espinola [7] lightly raced gelding spelled following fighting head 2^nd classy Kubrick Rosehill 1200m. Keep safe.

 

Race 6:

1. Sweet Scandal (4)
2. Jamaican Rain (1)
3. Bella Martini (3)
4. Victory Kingdom (9)

Sweet Scandal has come back stronger this campaign overpowering her rivals Randwick 1200m before solid 3^rd in-form Tofane in Gr. 3 at Caulfield. Drawn to get a cosy run.

Jamaican Rain, classy type tired after a torrid run when resuming at Caulfield and will strip much fitter here. Loves wet.

Bella Martini found the pace too hot in Gilgai then allowed to drift too far back at Caulfield last time. Ridden more positively when 3^rd in Gr. 1 Sangster.

Victory Kingdom is going much better than her form this campaign would indicate and she boast a head 2^nd Spanish Whisper in Gr. 2 Kewney when seen over this route in autumn.
Into The Abyss [7] did it easily under 60kg Warwick Farm 1400m then may have found the drop back to 1200m against at Geelong. Covered ground when 3^rd last year.

Race 7:

1. Finche (11)
2. Cross Counter v(1)
3. Constantinople (19)
4. Mustajeer (8)
5. Surprise Baby (18)
6. Mer De Glace (2)

See Melbourne Cup Preview https://peterellisracing.com/news/melbourne-cup-preview-by-peter-ellis/

 

Race 8:

1. Junipal (17)
2. So You Win (8)
3. Looks Like Elvis (11)
4. Plein Ciel (6)

Junipal was beaten a head by cup contender Vow And Declare at last year’s carnival and has improved since. Got clear too late 3^rd subsequent Gr. 1 placed Cascadian Randwick 1600m. Handles all surfaces.

So You Win, honest 5yo who is sure to appreciate the spacious Flemington circuit after finding trouble 2^nd Caulfield 2000m then failed to negotiate home turn in Cranbourne Cup.

Looks Like Elvis may have found the track too firm at Cranbourne but runs either side good enough for this. Drawn to get a cushy run.

Plein Ceil, sparingly raced 7yo who is invariably at his best on soft ground. Not knocked about when resuming at Caulfield before picking up late ground in Cranbourne Cup.

Kiwia [4] Ballarat Cup winner [soft 7] ready to fire following three starts from a six-month spell while Moss ‘n’ Dale [1] worked home stylishly when resuming over 1400m at Caulfield.

 

Race 9

1. Tactical Advantage [2]
2. Parsifal [6]
3. Milwaukee [4]
4. Runson [7]

Tactical Advantage had no luck when 6^th in Gr. 1 at Doomben last prep and is looking for this distance following two starts from a break doing best work late 5^th Caulfield 1000m.

Haunted raced too keenly  when a short-priced failure here in May but subsequent efforts have been sound, albeit around a turn.

Parsifal has gone to a new level since moving to Adelaide winning five of eight this year and is proven down the straight leading till final 50m when 2^nd in-form Zoutori in Gr,2 Bobbie Lewis.

Milwaukee has been freshened since failing to handle the heavy when 5^th in Aurie’s Star. Finished top-two in previous four this course, winning twice.
Smart Coupe [10] was ultra-impressive at Geelong and while she can mix her form is usually reliable at Flemington while Holbien [11] can surprise at huge odds.

 

Race 10:

1. Xilong (5)
2. Pretty Brazen (4)
3. Betcha Flying (6)
4. Mayaaseh (9)

Xilong has created a big impression in her four starts. Outgunned classy Li’l Kontra Parks 1000m then absolutely destroyed in-form gallopers Garner and Jacobite Prince at Morphettville.

Pretty Brazen has improved since being ridden patiently scoring with plenty in hand at Bendigo and over this trip at Caulfield.

Betcha Flying is also very promising. Needed the run at Canterbury but desperately unlucky when stepping into listed 1400m at Randwick – should have won clearly.

Mayaaseh didn’t come up last prep but form this time solid winning twice and placing in strong race at Randwick.
Akari [2] needs luck from outside draw but is at the top of her game while California Salto [11] goes in exotics.

 

BEST:               SHARED AMBITION

EACH-WAY:      TACTICAL ADVANTAGE

LONGSHOT:      ALIFEROUS