With the majority of runners coming from overseas the task of assessing this year’s Melbourne Cup field has been extremely challenging.
After hours and hours of scrutinising videos and studying form lines I have reverted to last year’s running to select the Chris Waller-trained Finche, who finished a highly creditable fourth after peaking inside the 100m.
The Frankel gelding went into the 2018 Cup with just one lead-up run in the Geelong Cup (2400m) in which he finished third.
This time he has gone through a much more thorough preparation.
This began in the Chelmsford Stakes (1600m), when he finished a respectable fifth.
That was followed by a victory in the Kingstown Town (2000m), a short head second to King’s Will Dream in the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington and a pleasing fifth in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) on October 19.
He jumped from an outside gate at Caulfield and was forced to race wide most of the way, yet was beaten only 1.8 lengths.
It is in his favour in the race for the $7.75 million prize money is that he will appreciate being on the roomier Flemington track, the softer going, drawing No.4 gate and being ridden by last year’s winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy.
Ironically the defending champion Cross Counter, who will have the services of William Buick, is shaping as the hardest for Finche to beat.
Even allowing for the fact that he carried only 51kg – he now has 57.5kg – he was an ultra-impressive winner and his form since has been solid.
He won the Dubai Gold Cup (3200m) in March, was fourth in the Ascot Gold Cup (4000m) in June, a third to the world’s best stayer Stradivarius in the Goodwood Cup (3200m) in July and fourth in the Irish St Leger (2816m) in September.
Furthermore from gate five he will be able to settle closer than when jumping from No.19 12 months ago.
Although still a Northern Hemisphere three-year-old Constantinople must be respected.
He cost himself victory by racing greenly in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood (2400m) on his way to a solid second to English St Leger winner Logician in the Great Voltigeur Stakes (2385m) on August 21.
When having his first Australian start for the Lindsay Park team he found his share of trouble but still managed to finish a close-up fourth in the Caulfield Cup.
Mustajeer – winner of The Ebor (2787m) at York in August – turned in an eye-catching performance at Caulfield.
He is another who appreciates the more spacious Flemington circuit, with the added benefit Damien Oliver in the saddle.
The No.1 contender among the Australian representatives is the dour-staying Surprise Baby, who is prepared by Paul Preusker.
A five-year-old gelding by 2009 Melbourne Cup winner Shocking was triumphant in the Adelaide Cup (3200m) at Morphettville in May when having just his sixth start and is quite figuratively untapped.
Surprise Bay resumed with a fast-finishing fourth in the Group 2 Feehan Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley leading up to a dominant win in The Bart Cummings (2520m) at Flemington on October 5.
He drops 3.5kg to 53.5kg in the Cup and as a come-from-behind stayer jockey Jordan Childs should not be unduly worried by gate No.20.
Japanese entire Mer De Grace, who looped the field to score in the Caulfield Cup, has been in brilliant form this year with successes coming at each of his six outings.
Judging by the way he demolished his rivals at Caulfield he cannot be taken lightly but running the 3200m might be a query.
The Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young-trained Mirage Dancer, who like Finche is by Frankel, must also be rated highly.
Even after having a chequered passage in the Caulfield Cup he was able to finish third – beaten a length and a head – and has put together a decent record at around 2400m over the last year.
Although she has only won two of her 19 starts Magic Wand is arguably the classiest horse in the field, however she has seven seconds and two thirds to her credit which have mostly been in Group 1 events.
After being annoyed in the lead she battled on gamely when fourth in the Cox Plate and despite drawing the outside gate she is expected to drop into a handy position in the early stages.
In a very difficult race Master Of Reality, Southern France, Prince Of Arran, Il Paradiso, Vow And Declare, Latrobe and Downdraft.
Selections:
- Finche (11)
- Cross Counter (1)
- Constantinople (19)
- Mustajeer (8)
- Surprise Baby (18)
- Mer De Glace (2)
