Hi guys, today and tomorrow great week – end of racing for connoisseurs in UK (Ascot & Newmarket) and Paris (Longchamp).
First of all, we have to understand the state of the going in those tracks: officially Ascot & Newmarket are riding good to firm, but for Longchamp the Racing Post states “good to soft”.
The trouble is that some stable lads who arrived in Paris yesterday morning, taking some horses from
Newmarket, said that the ground is not soft at all. In these conditions it’s very difficult to select a few winners in France.
Saturday October 6th 2018, going good to firm, H. 2.25PM GMT: they will be off and running in
Stella Artois Cumberland Lodge Stakes, Gr-2, Stakes, 1m3f211y for 3yo+, with a total prize money of £ 34,026.
Having watched the races at Ascot yesterday where Ghostwatch (IRE) (Dubawi), 3, won quite easily a Listed over 1m6f, I came to the conclusion that First Eleven (GB) (Frankel), who has beaten him last time out in a Handicap, on the same course, on the same ground, will take a lot of beating: at the moment he is trading at 11/8F.
At 3PM GMT, John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes, Gr-3, 6f, for 3yo+, with a total prize money of £ 36,697.
No questions about that: Limato (IRE) (Tagula), 6, on this kind of ground looks a different class horse and his price of 9/4 is very, very tempting.
He won his last two races (both Listed) at Newmarket & York, on firm ground, quite easily: he is trained by a master trainer, Henry Candy who conditions his horses at Kingston Warren, County Oxfordshire.
A good idea is an each way double First Eleven & Limato.
Let’s move to Newmarket.
At 3.35PM GMT, Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes, Gr-1, 1m, for 3yo+ fillies & mares, with a total prize money of £ 266,875.
We should lump on Laurens (FR) (Siyouni) at 3/1.
Last time out in Ireland, at Leopardstown, in a Gr-1, over a mile, on good to firm ground, she has beaten the phenomenal Alpha Centauri (IRE) (Mastercraftsman), who got an injury during the race.
Forget about what happened to Alpha Centauri, Laurens, over a mile, is a Champion: her entourage made a mistake running her in the Darley Yorkshire Oaks, over a mile and a half, at York, where she finished nowhere, and the race was won by Sea Of Class (IRE) (Sea The Stars), who is second favourite at 7/2, in the Arc tomorrow.
The English bookmakers have made favourite Wind Chimes (GB) (Mastercraftsman), 3, trained in France by André Fabre, at 5/2.
Usually the progeny of Mastercraftsman (IRE) (Danehill Dancer), to perform at their best, need a cut in the ground as well as the progeny of Pivotal (GB) (Polar Falcon).
Pivotal is the sire of Siyouni FR), but Laurens flies on ground at least good.
For a place don’t forget Clemmie (IRE) (Galileo), 3, full sister to Churchill, winner of both the English & Irish 2000 Guineas, herself a Group 1 winner, at Newmarket, last year, over 6f, on good to firm ground: she is at 15/2.
Now we must close our eyes flying (by helicopter, of course) to Paris, direction Boi-de-Boulogne, Longchamp.
At 4.05PM CET, Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, Gr-1, 1m4f, for 3yo+, with a total prize money of 4,424,779.
As I said before, at the moment, I don’t know the state of the ground, which is one of the most, if not the most, parameter in a flat race for thoroughbreds.
I have to give credit to the stable lads who are there since yesterday arriving from Newmarket: going good.
Last year Enable (GB) (Nathaniel), at Chantilly, won this race in a great style at 10/11, on soft ground, but previously she scored four times at the top level.
Then she had one or more setbacks and this year she ran only once, on the all – weather (polytrack), at Kempton, on September 8th, in a Gr-3, the 188Bet September Stakes, over 1m4f.
She won quite well and her action in the closing stages was very impressive.
Is one race enough to be ready for such a competition against the colts?
Sea Of Class (IRE) (Sea The Stars), 3, this year has been beaten only once, first time out in her career, and then she won four races (2 Gr-1s).
So, she has the same profile, more or less, of Enable last year and she is on the upgrade: she is trading at 7/2.
We must consider two colts, Waldgeist (GB) (Galileo), 4, trained by André Fabre, at 7/1 and Kew Gardens (Galileo), trained by Aidan O’Brien, at 10/1, who won easily the William Hill St. Leger, Gr-1, 1m61/2f, on good ground.
Waldgeist has won the Grand Prix de Saint – Cloud, Gr-1, 1m4f, on July 1st, on soft ground, beating a nose Coronet (GB) (Dubawi), 4, who at York was second of Sea Of Class, beaten two and a half lengths.
You should agree that the choice is not easy: too many question marks in the form of those four runners.
At the price, I believe that we should go for Sea Of Class each way, who is a big improver.
Last Wednesday she was supplemented at a cost of € 120,000: she is owned by Sunderland Holding Inc., which is the nom de curse of Mr. Christopher Tsui and of his mother, who bred and raced Sea The Stars, trained in Ireland by John M. Oxx, at Currabeg, Co. Kildare.
She is a half-sister to several Group 1s winners and she was bred in Ireland by Razza del Velino S.r.l., which is the nom de plume of the Botti family, top trainers in Italy since ages.
She is trained, at Newmarket, Suffolk, UK, by William Haggas, who married one of Lester Piggott’s daughters, Maureen, who is his assistant.
Haggas is in tremendous form: his percentage of winners to runners so far is 22%: 24% in the last 14 days.
Please bear in mind that fillies in the Autumn, most of the times, are at the peak of their form.
Good luck!