Tips » Flemington Saturday Nov 10 Selections and Comments by Peter Ellis (Updated after Final Scratchings)

Flemington Saturday Nov 10 Selections and Comments by Peter Ellis (Updated after Final Scratchings)

Black Caviar winning the 2011 Patinack Farm Stakes. Image: Quentin Lang

Race 1

 

  1. Al Passem [2]
  2. Manuel [3]
  3. Eshtiraak [7]

Al Passem can be forgiven his failure in Toorak when took off much too early. Bounced back from that “gut buster’ with a fighting 3rd in Listed Sale Cup and was successful over this route four starts ago.
Manuel is a query at 1600m although has come back stronger this campaign leading throughout Caulfield 1400m before conceding emerging Fifty Stars 5kg when runner-up here on Tuesday.

Eshtiraak lost form after contesting last year’s Derby but is back on track with solid efforts in three starts this campaign. Drawn to get a cosy run.

Call It A Day [6] has improved since being stepped up in distance and ridden closer to the lead while Balcazar [5] can pull out a big run at Flemington. Adds value [$26] to exotics.

Race 2

 

  1. Danon Roman [7]
  2. Lucky For All [5]
  3. Pleasuring [8]

Danon Roman showed promise in handful of starts when trained in Japan and has been solid in three local starts. Raced handier when a fighting 2nd over this trip at Caulfield and is drawn to get a similar run.
Lucky For All, talented 4yo cost himself victory by “laying in” at a critical stage in first two starts this prep although was more direct to line when successful over 2000m at Caulfield.

Pleasuring, group winning mare peaking for this following four starts from a break. Worked home strongly at Cranbourne and the Valley and is much better suited on this roomier track.

The Pinnacle [6] ultra impressive winning the Gr. 3 Epona at Rosehill when stepping up in distance last time in while Etymology [4] stuck on gamely when resuming behind in-form Doubt Defying then raced on slower part on the track under 58.5kg at Randwick last time.

Race 3

 

  1. Yulong January [4]
  2. Ringerdingding [6]
  3. Ragged Rascal [5]

Yulong January made it three from three when leading throughout at Randwick then only collared in last stride by subsequent Flemington winner Rainier over 1400m at Caulfield. Ideally drawn.

Ringerdingding acquitted himself well in three of four starts since transferring from Sydney and wasn’t comfortable on soft at Caulfield on the other occasion. .

Ragged Rascal ultra impressive beating in-form gallopers Meryl and Charge when resuming at Randwick and did get back against the trend in Guineas Prelude and Gr. 3 at the Valley. Can surprise at odds.

Enbihaar [2] tad disappointing since her fast finishing 2nd in Blue Diamond last year but did let down stylishly behind Sunlight at Caulfield indicating the extra 200 will suit while More Than Exceed [10] has claims on 4th this route Oct 6 when led till final 100m.

 

Race 4

 

  1. Mr Sneaky [7]
  2. Widgee Turf [1]
  3. Dollar For Dollar [3]

Mr Sneaky, classy performer going much better than form this campaign would indicate. Ridden too close at the Valley then set an impossible task in Gr.1 before striking a soft track at Caulfield. .

Widgee Turf, superbly placed 5yo who hasn’t missed the place in past 12 starts [6 wins] going left-handed. Stuck on bravely 2nd well-regarded Iconoclasm Valley 1500m.

Dollar For Dollar had to tire after chasing a suicidal pace in Toorak but is clearly more effective at 1400m as evidenced by his narrow defeat in Rupert Clarke.

Dreamforce 4] Sydneysider won five [1100m-1600m] of eight last season and is ready for this following two starts in Victoria.

Ulmann [5] usually pulls out a big run second-up and was putting in big strides late when returning over 1200m at the Valley.

Race 5

 

  1. Libran [1]
  2. Jaameh [7]
  3. Casterton [6]

Libran has appreciated being kept to short distances this spring. Closed steadily in Metropolitan then again asked to cover extra ground when 3rd in fast-run Valley Cup [2500m].

Jaameh has a great record at Flemington winning twice before head 2nd Bart Cummings and 3rd in last Saturday’s Lexus. A Prince Of Arran has since franked that form.

Casterton won two listed events in France last year and is sure to derive immense benefit from local debut in Geelong when made ground against the bias.

Gallic Chieftain [2] carried 54kg when 5th last year but is going better finishing close-up in Herbert Power and Lexus while Lord Fandango [3] goes in wider exotics.

Takeover Target winning the 2004 Salinger Stakes. Image: Quentin Lang.

Race 6:

 

  1. Sheezdashing (8)
  2. Our Libretto (14)
  3. Temple Of Bel [11]

Sheezdashing should have won the Schweppes Oaks and Queensland Oaks last season and unfortunately that run of misfortune has continued this time around. Each-way.

Our Libretto, ex Kiwi unbeaten in four starts since joining Graeme Begg relishing the step to 2000m in Pinker Pinker at Cranbourne. Even better this course.

Temple Of Bel, talented 4yo who is crying of for this distance finishing powerfully when 4th in a “sprint home” at Caulfield and again in Gr. 1 Empire Rose on Derby Day.

Nettoyer [9] always shaped as though this race would suit and is back on song making light on 58kg Valley 2040m victory.

Aqua D’Ivina [12] well bred 4yo progressing through her grades overpowering a decent field in Randwick bench 94 while All Too Soon [10] has claims in a race of numerous chances.

Race 7:

 

  1. Kementari (7)
  2. Redzel (1)
  3. Pierata [6]

Kementari has enormous potential but still a Melbourne maiden after six starts although he was desperately unlucky in Gr. 1 Manikato when allowed to drift too far back.

Redzel won this race last year on the back of Everest victory and is going equally as well. Has the speed to find the quickest part of the track.

Pierata didn’t get the 1600m in record breaking Epsom but took no harm from the run easily dispatching Jungle Edge over 1200m at Randwick. Inside barrier a concern.

Redkirk Warrior [4] boasts an outstanding record over the straight course at Flemington winning a Lightning and two Newmarket’s.

U S Navy Flag [10] didn’t handle the heavy in Everest then never out of trouble in Manikato. Will find the straight course more to his liking while Jungle Cat [5] has also won at the elite level in the Northern Hemisphere.

Race 8:

 

  1. Blair House (3)
  2. Latrobe (7)
  3. Prized Icon (2)

Blair House beat the classy Benbatl in Group 1 at Meydan in March and has come back well closing strongly behind Homesman in Underwood before fighting head 2nd classy Benbatl in Underwood.

Latrobe, Irish Derby winner who simply found the class beyond him when 10 lengths astern of Roaring Lion in 2000m Juddmonte at York. Keep safe.

Prized Icon had no luck when a closing 2nd Cliff’s Edge in Crystal Mile at the Valley and he did win the Derby here two years ago. Chance in a sub-standard renewal.

It’s Somewhat [1] was 3rd last year and has been working to the line nicely suggesting this is his target.

Shillelagh [8] unknown at 2000m but has won two Group 1’s at Flemington while Doubt Defying [5] has looked super in his two victories this campaign.

 

Race 9:

 

  1. Revenire (4)
  2. Esperance (2)
  3. Eurak [9]

Reveniere is unproven over the straight track but the fact he always puts in suggests he won’t be fazed by the occasion. Suited this trip after powering to the line over a 1000m in past two.

Esperance beat stablemate Revenire on heavy 10 at Randwick before facing an impossible task on biased track when dropping back to 955m at the Valley.

Eurak resumes for new stable after winning all four starts including two first-up. Drawn to find outside.

Order Of Command [11] has a good record on his home track but may find barrier 1 a negative, especially if the field gravitates towards the outside rail while Beacon [8] and Sirius Suspect [6] have claims in a tricky affair.

BEST BET:      BLAIR HOUSE

EACH-WAY:    KEMENTARI

VALUE BET:   SHEEZDASHING