The 2018 Breeders’ Cup will take place over two days at Churchill Downs, Kentucky, beginning just after 6am Melbourne Time, on (what will then be Saturday) November 3 (still Friday in Kentucky, USA). The second day’s Breeders’ Cup races begin at 3:00am Melbourne Time on (what will then be Sunday November 4).
The theme of the 2-day event will be attempting to balance the strong contingent of favorites against the urge to spread deep enough to cover the tempting longshots in horizontal wagers. American horse racing has evolved into punters sitting around and trying to string way too many winners in a row on one ticket, and then sharing “bad beat” stories at the end of the (“meeting”) over suds with their mates. Of course it would be better served by most players staying within reason without always needing to shoot for the moon. But who wants to limit themselves on these two glorious days?
By American standards the Breeders’ Cup brings the largest wagering pools of the year and few can resist putting their hard-earned dollars behind their opinions and letting fly. If lucky, your wagers will at least match your opinions no matter the outcomes, but constructing bets to even attain that is no easy task.
Fourteen races comprise the 2018 Breeders’ Cup with 5 on the first day (all for two-year-old runners) and 9 on the second day (no two-year-olds included there).
Saturday at Churchill Downs
Race 3:
Filly and Mare Sprint: A strong contingent of distaff runners begins day two of the Breeders’ Cup and they are headed by streaking favorite Marley’s Freedom. Wide draw shouldn’t hurt with a long run to the first turn and this shall prove another contest where the key is balancing how many tickets you use the favorite with just how deep you go for multi-race wagers.
Race 4:
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint: Lets be honest, this race is just a guessing game. It will be determined by who gets bumped, who gets trapped, and who has a clean trip. In the end, the line between how many you covered and just who you left out could decide your fate for at least the entire first half of day two of Breeders’ Cup. Be very, very careful when laying-out multi-race exotics bets through this event.
Race 5:
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile: A ten-horse field over a mile around one turn on the dirt may serve as a relative breather to those focused on multi-race wagers on this day. The betting favorite drew the outside post and he should enjoy a nice, long run to the turn. That favorite is lightly-raced after starting just once prior to his 4th birthday. This group doesn’t arrive with a great deal of early speed, and the favorite is quite handy so his rider should be able to have the run of the race. Perhaps one of the better “singles” in the whole Breeders’ Cup.
Race 6:
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf: The configuration of the Churchill grass course has this race beginning quite near to the first of 3 turns and that factor will likely hinder some of the contestants. European runners are well-positioned to dominate even though the morning line favorite is a steady American filly. This is the first leg of the “pick-6” in American wagering pools and perhaps the tote will help to separate the prime candidates from the others for those filling out their tickets as off time approaches.
Race 7:
Breeders’ Cup Sprint: Favorite Imperial Hint has been in front with a furlong to go in each of his 11 starts since December of 2016. The 5yo did manage to lose a couple of those but he won in a complete canter last out and the effort should be upgraded several lengths as a result. Defending champion Roy H is back and did manage to topple Imperial Hint a year ago. This time, however, Roy H is on a road trip while the vast majority of his 21 career starts came in his California back yard. Expecting some great cat-and-mouse tactics as this race unfolds and surely the title of “Champion Sprinter” will greet the victor.
Race 8:
Breeders’ Cup Mile: As usual there is a strong European flavor to this contest and the call in this corner is improving 3yo filly Polydream, whose last start was a disaster on paper. If you watch just a single replay in preparation for the 2018 Breeders’ Cup, perhaps it should be the “Prix de la Foret” from Longchamp, which you can find on YouTube. Eventually you’ll pick-out Polydream, who was trapped with nowhere to move while against a rail at a crucial stage. Once extricated by her rider, Polydream cruised home to finish in front of all of those who had helped to hem her in. The Prix de la Foret was swept by longshots and they probably didn’t represent a “true” result. Aidan O’Brien is now a further scratch away from having 4 starters here with the most likely of them seeming to be Happily, who is better drawn than her stablemate in barrier 12. Of course there will be quite a scrum as this field winds into the stretch and we might cover about 5 of them in the multi-race wagering.
Race 9:
Breeders’ Cup Distaff: There are a number of capable runners going here but the sophomore Monomoy Girl looks best based on improvement potential. The #11 barrier draw awaits the favorite who has finished in front in 9 of 10 lifetime starts, losing by just a neck in the other. A couple of these may be good enough to get Monomoy Girl in the end, but likely only if that one is off her game a bit.
Race 10:
Breeders’ Cup Turf: The smart filly Enable will attempt to net the Arc/Breeders’ Cup double as she meets 4 others she just vanquished in France’s biggest race. Enable has a stout pedigree which should have her going best well after many of the others have put the cue in the rack with main competition expected to come from Arc 4th Waldgeist. Improving filly Magical came back and won at this trip after her disappointing run in the Arc. This is yet another spot for a strong “single” by most multi-race-exotics players but perhaps one might afford a light ‘dusting’ to possibly a trio of others, just in case…
Race 11:
Breeders’ Cup Classic: Always the finale of the Breeders’ Cup, the Classic of 2018 boasts plenty of accomplished runners and a favorite who will attempt to stake his claim as one who can win on the road. It should be observed that Accelerate has raced 20 times in Southern California and once elsewhere. He’s 5-for-5 in California this year and 0-for-1 outside of California lifetime. Yet again comes a favorite who drew the outside barrier but with a long run to the first turn (identical to the Kentucky Derby) he should be minimally affected. A Bob Baffert tag-team will try to derail the favorite with heralded 3yo McKinzie still seeming to have enough improvement potential to pose the most serious threat. Mendelssohn was once a $3 million yearling buy and he did win a Breeders’ Cup race a year ago, on GRASS, but for all of the world-wide talk, his trainer Aidan O’Brien is a paltry 2-for-63 lifetime on North American dirt. (one of those wins was with Mendelssohn’s grandsire 17 years ago!) At this stage of the wagering day, who can afford to go very deep when trying to find the winner here?
Tips:
First thing we’re going to do is select a “roughie” in each race, just for fun:
Day two
3 – Mia Mischief # 8
4 – Rainbow Heir # 6
5 – Trigger Warning # 2
6 – Eziyra #14
7 – Promises Fulfilled # 2
8 – Happily # 3
9 – Wow Cat # 9
10 – Magical # 5
11 – Roaring Lion # 2
Now, lets get more serious:
Day two:
Race 3: As deep as 13-11-1-8-4-5 on some, emphasizing top-4 there, esp. #13
Race 4: Best race to use “all” – wonder if I can squeak past using 11-5-6-9-7-14-12 ?
Race 5: Will rely mostly on 10 and 1 while 6 and 7 are on the fence in this corner
Race 6: Likely going as deep as 3-10-14-6-1-9 with strong emphasis on top pair there
Race 7: Might ‘dust’ 5-9-2-8-1 while relying heavily on the first two of those.
Race 8: Emphasizing 3-7-14-13-11 while merely ‘hoping’ the winner is high on the list
Race 9: Will go as far as 11-2-7-9-10 behind the *single-worthy* top choice there.
Race 10: By this time most will single #2, but we may ‘dust’ 2-12-5-1 on horizontal tickets
Race 11: First impulse is to take a ‘stand’ on 6 and 14 but 6-14-7-2-1-11 each add comfort
Good luck to all !
