Tips » AFL Finals Week 1 Selections by Graeme Kelly

AFL Finals Week 1 Selections by Graeme Kelly

The 2020 AFL premier may well be decided when Richmond meet Brisbane at The Gabba in the second qualifying final on Friday night.

The defending premiers are $3.25 favourites with Brisbane second in betting markets on $5 so the clash is certainly going to be vitally important as far as championship aspirations are concerned.

While this has been a season full of upsets the Tigers are obviously the team to beat.

As mentioned previously the Richmond players can “find a length” when needed.

This is particularly evident in the role being played by Dustin Martin, who is inspirational when required and he is ably supported by the likes of captain Trent Cotchin, Shane Edwards and Shai Bolton.

Added to that Jack Riewoldt is playing particularly well in attack so the loss of Tom Lynch should be covered.

The Lions have a prolific possession winner in MVP Player of the Year Lachie Neale but there have been signs that he is becoming agitated when marked closely by an opposing tagger.

Lions captain Dayne Zorko, who is as tough as any player in the competition, has returned to form and the side’s defence generally holds firm.

However, it will be intriguing to watch how key forwards Eric Hipwood and Charlie Cameron cope under the intense pressure that Richmond’s defenders and midfielders can apply.

The finals series opens at Adelaide Oval on Thursday night when minor premier Port Adelaide go up against Geelong in the first qualifying final.

Although the Power have won 14 of their last 17 matches they have been unable to convince the pundits of their ability and they are being quoted at $6 for the flag against Geelong’s $5,50,

Despite this there is a lot to like about Port with Tom Rockliff, Brad Ebert, Robbie Gray and Travis Boak being constant driving forces and the side’s defence, constructed around captain Tom Jonas and Darcy Byrne-Jones, being defiant.

Charlie Dixon is using his brute strength effectively in attack and around the ground while tireless ruckman Scott Lycett is under-rated.

Of course with the Cats possessing players of the calibre of All Australian captain Paddy Dangerfield, Gary Ablett and their erstwhile captain Joel Selwood they cannot be sold short.

Against that Geelong was far from impressive in scrambling home by six points against Sydney in Round 18.

And, even though he was chosen as All Australian full forward Tom Hawkins cannot always be relied upon as the team’s spearhead.

St Kilda has made significant progress since Brett Ratten became coach late last season but the Saints have a difficult assignment against the Western Bulldogs in the first elimination final at The Gabba on Saturday night.

The Saints can take heart, though, from their convincing display in thrashing Greater Western Sydney by 52 points in the last round, after a series of indifferent performances.

The side does not include household names but Jack Steele has become an outstanding midfielder and captain Jarryn Geary’s defensive work gives the impression he would lay down his life for the club.

There are others such as Josh Battle, Jack Billings, Rowan Marshall, Jack Lonie,  and Dan Hannebery – he is just coming right – who can be relied upon to contribute.

As they were at this stage last season the Bulldogs are an in-form side with victories in five of their last six encounters culminating in a 30-point win over Fremantle.

They have a marvellous leader in Marcus Bontempelli, Tim English is an emerging star as is Bailey Smith while others such as Jack Macrae, Josh Dunkley, Mitch Wallis and Lachie Hunter, despite an earlier skirmish with the club’s officialdom, are invaluable team players.

Seemingly the only sure bet in the first week comes when West Coast plays Collingwood in the first elimination final at Optus Stadium on Saturday.

Disturbingly the Eagles are suspect away from home – the unimpressive 15-point over North Melbourne again showed that – but when back in Perth they show their undoubted talent.

Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Liam Ryan should not have much trouble kicking a winning score against the Magpies, who tried hard when losing by 16 points to Port Adelaide but lacked authority and cohesion.

 

Port Adelaide by 17pts

Richmond by 23pts

Western Bulldogs by 10pts

West Coast by 31pts