The Irish raider Yucatan – carrying the silks of the Williams family – is poised this year to end the losing streak of trainer Aidan O’Brien and of international favourites beaten in the Melbourne Cup.
O’Brien, who was trumped by his son Joseph’s win with Rekindling last year, has failed in previous attempts at the Cup but judging from Yucatan’s easy victory in the Herbert Power on October 13 he is perfectly primed.
That victory boosted Yucatan to clear cut favouritism and despite receiving a 2.5kg penalty and drawing No.23 gate his position has not been challenged since.
While Vintage Crop’s success in 1993 has triggered an ever-increasing invasion of overseas stayers it is not entirely factual to claim there has been an international domination of the race.
In that period the Cup has gone to internationally trained runners on six more occasions – 25 have been placed – but in that time 12 overseas-trained horses have started favourite or equal favourite and been beaten.
The closest to winning was Pop Rock, who was nosed out by his Japanese stablemate Delta Blues in 2006 but Yucatan certainly has the credentials to overcome that hoodoo.
Before winning the Herbert Power the Galileo five-year-old put together a series of quality performances leading up to his win in the Volvo International at The Curragh on July 1.
At his only subsequent appearance before coming down under he finished a close-up third in the Ballyroan Stakes over 2414m at Leopardstown on August 9.
It is also important that he has the services of James McDonald, who displayed his exceptional skills in bringing Shillelagh along the rails from near last to win the Empire Rose Stakes on Saturday.
O’Brien, Ireland’s champion trainer, has two other worthy contenders in The CliffsofMoher and Rostropovich.
The CliffshofMoher, who will be wearing a lugging bit for the first time, powered home to be fourth in the Caulfield Stakes (2000m) and then was not comfortable in the soft ground in the Caulfield Cup seven days later.
A second placegetter in the Irish Derby Rostropovich was a respectable fifth in the Cox Plate and as a northern hemisphere three-year-old is nicely treated with 51kg.
It seems, however, that Yucatan’s most dangerous competitor will be Muntahaa, prepared by leading English trainer John Godsen, who is having a brilliant year culminating in Enable’s win in the Breeders’ Cup Turf on Saturday.
Enable had won the Prix de l’Arc Triomphe in October and others to add to Gosden’s honour roll in 2018 have been Eclipse and International Stakes winner Roaring Lion, Champion Stakes winner Cracksman and Ascot Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup winner Stradivarius.
Muntahaa, who will be ridden by Jim Crowley, was a last start winner of the prestigious Ebor handicap over 2800m at York on August 28 so goes into the Cup with not having a lead up outing in Melbourne, which can be a disadvantage.
That is not deterring the connections of Marmelo, who was a disappointing ninth in last year’s Cup after finishing a slashing sixth at Caulfield, because they feel he will be better without a prior start in Australia.
He has had four outings over long distances this year for two wins and two seconds and has not appeared since being beaten by Holdthasigreen in the Prix Kergolay at Deauville on August 19.
Another going into the race with a spaced build-up is Magic Circle, who recorded six-length wins over 3750m at Chester on May 11 and over 3265m at Sandown Park on May 24.
The Melbourne Cup has evaded Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin for many years but his three-pronged attack headed by Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution and backed up by Avilius and Cross Counter certainly gives him a decent chance.
Surprisingly the Saeed bin Suroor stable’s Bold Solution, who has topweight of 57.5, escaped a penalty for his Caulfield win so seems well treated while Avilius was impressive in winning at his first four Australian starts before a solid fourth in the Cox Plate.
Interestingly James Cummings has followed the pattern with Avilius that his grandfather used successfully with Saintly in 1996.
For he ran Avilius in The Bart Cummings (2500m) at Flemington while the Cups King ran Saintly in The Metropolitan (2600m) at Randwick – how he was beaten into third place is still a mystery – before his victory at Moonee Valley.
Like Rostropovich a northern hemisphere three-year-old the Charlie Appleby-trained Cross Counter, who will be ridden by Kerrin McEvoy, has raced only seven times for four wins and two seconds.
Successes at Ascot in June and Goodwood on August 4 were followed by a head second to his stablemate Old Persian in the Great Voltigeur Stakes (2385m) at York on August 22.
Although a distant 11th in the Caulfield Cup when he was checked early and not suited by the soft ground Japan’s Chestnut Coat has the staying power to finish in the frame.
He was fifth in the prestigious Tenno Show (Spring) over 3200m at Kyoto on April 19 and has reportedly improved considerably since Caulfield.
The “local” hopes rest with Chris Waller – he now says he is half New Zealander and half Australian – who will be represented the veteran Who Shot The Barman, Finche and Youngstar.
This year’s Sydney Cup winner Who Shot The Barman will run an honest race but Finche and Youngstar have brighter prospects.
A son of Frankel, Finche is a winner over 2500 in France and battled on gamely when a close-up third in the Geelong Cup while Youngstar, who showed her class in winning this year’s Queensland Oaks, is coming along pleasingly.
She was a length second to Winx in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington before getting too far back in when seventh in the Caulfield Cup.
Selections:
- Yucatan (11)
- Muntahaa (5)
- The Cliffsofmoher (2)
- Cross Counter (23)
- Best Solution (1)
- Magic Circle (3)
