THE Spring Racing carnival officially starts on Saturday but for we dedicated racing punters we’ve been looking ahead to the Spring Majors for weeks now.
Every time a Group or Listed race is run we’re analysing whether the combatants will take place in a Caulfield Cup or a Cox Plate.
Or even the biggest of them all – the Melbourne Cup.
Saturday’s Turnbull Stakes will undoubtedly have horses that will contest all three Majors this Spring – both Cups and the Cox Plate at The Valley.
The trick for us is to determine whether they will be bit-players or the kind that make a mark on Australian racing history.
This Turnbull Stakes renewal, on paper, looks thin on the ground for genuine winning chances.
Either that’s the case with TABCORP’S first two favourites – MYSTIC JOURNEY ($2.70) and Queensland Derby winner MR QUICKIE ($3.90) – or it may just be a raffle.
To my eye the 2000-metres of this race poses two critical questions.
Will it be too far for MYSTIC JOURNEY thus casting huge doubts about her in the Cox Plate, or will it be not far enough for MR QUICKIE who looks a real Caulfield Cup (2400m) contender.
The answers to both questions will be provided quite quickly and both might prove to be irrelevant, but as punters we are always asking the questions that really count.
As we thought last week with HOMESMAN thinking the wide barrier was the only thing that could get him beaten, and it was, the same story might unfold for both MYSTIC JOURNEY and MR QUICKIE.
Following the withdrawal of top mare Verry Elleegant on Thursday, MYSTIC JOURNEY will now start from gate nine and MR QUICKIE from barrier 11.
Given there is a 500-metre run to the first turn at Flemington from the 2000-metre start, both wide gates may prove to have little effect.
MYSTIC JOURNEY will likely go forward at the start while MR QUICKIE will go back, so potentially what looks a real issue may not be.
The brilliant Tasmanian mare has never raced beyond a mile and her brave but not so convincing second last start in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m), at Flemington, has cast doubts in many minds she can get further.
The winner of that race, Gatting, ran very well over 1800-metres at Caulfield last week in the Underwood Stakes, but the doubt for MYSTIC JOURNEY remains.
On the other hand MR QUICKIE resumed in the Makybe Diva Stakes and everyone saw his charging finish when third.
Although he is second-up into the Turnbull, the horse is two wins from two goes second-up, so that doesn’t seem an issue and on paper the 2000-metre should be ideal.
The sizzling first-up speed shown from the horse in the Makybe Diva may be dulled a little now, but surely the 2000-metre journey should be perfect.
For mine MR QUICKIE is clearly the horse to beat – the only downside is that he will likely get a long way back and that can often be a recipe for disaster.
At some stage in the last 400-metres MYSTIC JOURNEY will look the winner.
She is likely to position on or near the lead and if she gets a cushy run then she will charge to the front half-way down the Flemington straight.
Then it’s a matter of MR QUICKIE, or perhaps the former French galloper and strong stayer FINCHE making a claim.
He comes out of the Sydney Spring carnival on the back of a strong win in the Group 3 Kingston Town (2000m) beating Stampede.
Stampede made that form look strong when he led throughout to win the Group 3 Colin Stephen (2400m) last week in Sydney.
FINCHE ($13), at just his second start in Australia last year ran an eye-catching fourth in the Melbourne Cup, after running third in the Geelong Cup at his Australian debut.
Trainer Chris Waller has given him a solid grounding into this Turnbull Stakes and one thing we can be sure of is he will be very strong on the line.
For mine there are many runners in this race looking for further and making up numbers.
MR QUICKIE, MYSTIC JOURNEY and FINCHE look to be in the right place at the right time and they are the only three I can entertain as winning prospects.
MR QUICKIE for me and he might just go on and win the Caulfield Cup too!
Good luck!
