Reporting from the US
Saturday’s main Breeders’ Cup program (beginning at about 6:00am Melbourne time on Sunday morning)
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint:
What can sometimes be a competitive contest will likely be dominated by two favorites in a tiny field of 5 runners. Bob Baffert-trained Gamine is the defending champion and she romped a year ago at even-money and figures to be a lower price this time. Only serious challenger is Bella Sofia, who drew a barrier just outside of Gamine and could have some sort of a tactical edge for that reason. The favorite, though, tends to step-up her game as needed and is more likely than not to find another way to win.
Final expectations: Gamine (5), Bella Sofia (6).
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint:
A field of 12 will tackle a typical American turf course around one turn at what is expected to be a rocket-like tempo. As is typical, the first place to look in Breeders’ Cup turf races is at the European invaders and there is no shortage of them here. Sophomore A Case of You just conquered Gr. I company in the Prix de l’Abbaye including today’s formidable foe Glass Slippers but that race was contested over heavy going while this affair is sure to be run over a course not unlike a billiard table in texture. English gelding Emaraaty Ana was a Gr. I winner last out at good odds and is expected to give strong account of himself once again. Top American hopes include sophomore Golden Pal and 4-year-old Gear Jockey in a race where trip and racing luck will determine most of what transpires.
Final expectations: A Case of You (6), Emaraaty Ana (2), Golden Pal (3), Glass Slippers (1), Gear Jockey (10), Lieutenant Dan (4).
Breeders Cup Dirt Mile:
Among the better Kentucky Derby candidates in early 2021 was Life Is Good, before he was sidelined for some months and made to miss the American classics. He is 1-for-2 since his return with a narrow miss to Breeders’ Cup Sprint favorite, Jackie’s Warrior having been his only career loss. Too soon to tell whether this one could handle 2400 meters but he just may be right at home in this 1600 meter contest which came up a bit light. Life Is Good just throttled older foes at Belmont Park, USA in his last race, and this is likely his race to lose.
Final expectations: Life Is Good (5), Silver State (1), Ginobili (3), Pingxiang (2).
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf:
A nice mix of foreign invaders headline this 2200 meter affair with a token American threat seeking a 5th consecutive victory. The European runners simply seem a cut above the Americans in this spot with both Love, and Loves Only You having faced the best company overseas. Today’s distance should afford plenty of time and opportunity for the cream to rise to the top.
Final expectations: Loves Only You (8), Love (6), Audarya (12), Rougir (4), War Like Goddess (7).
Breeders’ Cup Sprint:
What is typically a crowded and hotly-contested event has dwindled to a manageable 9 starters with one of those seeming significantly better than the rest on best days. Jackie’s Warrior has sprinted on a fast surface 5 times and won them all and is sporting speed figures clearly above the others. It seems possible that a 3yo improving with maturity could prove to be the equal to the favorite so that’s the angle to use if attempting to profit from an upset here. Dr. Schivel seems the most likely spoiler and he’s lightly raced with just a single start since July. Would want to cover that foe on multi-race wagers.
Final expectations: Jackie’s Warrior (2), Dr. Schivel (9), Special Reserve (8), Firenze Fire (6), Aloha West (5).
Breeders’ Cup Mile:
Always among the more fun and competitive events on ‘Cup weekend, the B.C. Mile brings a full gate along with the usual host of talented foreign shippers. Perhaps significantly better than the others is Godolphin runner Space Blues. Although seasoned at races at or near 7 furlongs, Space Blues has raced a mile or more on 3 occasions with a win, a second, and a fourth to show for them. The fourth came over 10 furlongs (or 2000 meters) while the runner-up finish saw him lose by a narrow head. The son of Dubawi has won 6 of his last 7 races IN Europe and he drew an inside berth which should keep him from losing ground on the first turn. Up and coming filly Mother Earth finished well in her last start and has a couple of Gr. I wins in 2021. American runner Mo Forza has had some success at Del Mar and he is ridden by the top local rider.
Final expectations: Space Blues (3), Mother Earth (9), Mo Forza (6), Pearls Galore (12), Master of the Seas (1).
Breeders’ Cup Distaff:
Here’s another competitive affair yet the wagering favorite, Letruska, will be gunning for her 6th consecutive victory while boasting superior speed figures on a consistent basis. The only way to beat that kind is with a young horse who is potentially improving and there are a couple such prospects in here including Private Mission and Malathaat with the later having yet to meet older foes. The 5th and 6th runners on our depth chart have each finished very close to Letruska at times yet still difficult to know whether the favorite is vulnerable here.
Final expectations: Private Mission (1), Letruska (6), Malathaat (3), Shedaresthedevil (8), Royal Flag (2), Dunbar Road (11).
Breeders’ Cup Turf:
A full 2400 meters awaits this group with the field divided nearly evenly between Americans defending the home soil and European invaders. The formidable favorite will be Arc de Triomphe runner-up Tarnawa, who won this race a year ago after having taken the Prix de l’Opera on Arc day 2020. Tarnawa was beaten 3/4 of a length this year by Torquator Tasso and it is most noteworthy that ‘Tasso topped Sisfahan by one length in Germany 4 weeks prior to the ‘Arc, and that he topped Walton Street by a length about 2 months prior to Arc day. A year ago, Tarnawa entered the Breeders’ Cup off of consecutive Gr. I wins and this time she enters off of consecutive losses vs. top company. There is really nothing to assure that a young and lightly-raced 3-year-old can’t end up on top in this spot.
Final expectations: Sisfahan (9), Tarnawa (13), Broome (8), Walton Street (7), Teona (12), Domestic Spending (3).
Breeders’ Cup Classic:
The main event is a bit short on numbers but does not lack for competitiveness. Early favorite Knicks Go seems somewhat one-dimensional but he does have a high cruising speed and probably won’t mind the Del Mar layout. Additionally there are a few others here who probably wouldn’t mind the early lead and who will opt instead for a different tactic so as not to be run into the ground early by the favorite. Kentucky Derby winner-for-the-time-being Medina Spirit drew a strategic barrier to the outside of Knicks Go and his rider should be able to measure that foe before possibly hounding him at some point. It remains possible that nobody is fast enough to stay with Knicks Go but unless that is the case, there are several here who have every right to prevail in the $6 Mil. event.
Final expectations: Hot Rod Charlie (3), Essential Quality (4), Knicks Go (5), Medina Spirit (8), Art Collector (6), Tripoli (1).