TRAINING juggernaut Darren Weir can tomorrow add the Group 1 $1 million Victoria Oaks (2500m) to his maiden Victoria Derby win with Extra Brut last Saturday.
Weir will put the saddle on shortening favourite AMPHITRITE ($3.30), former Kiwi filly VERRY ELLEGANT ($5.00), as well as $12 chance ZAPURLER.
While VERRY ELEEGANT has been a long-term Oaks filly, AMPHITRITE is somewhat of a last-minute’ Oaks runner following her totally luckless run in the Group 1 $500,000 Empire Rose on Saturday.
She went across the line badly held-up and with seemingly a lot to offer.
Rider Dean Yendall came back to scale shaking his head in disappointment, declaring his filly would have won comfortably with clear running.
Weir has had no hesitation in backing-up the Group 1 Thousand Guineas winner, despite many believing there is a distance doubt at the 2500-metres for the daughter of Golden Slipper winner Sebring.
When TABCORP opened its final-field market on the Oaks, AMPHITRITE was a solid $4.20 second elect behind stable-mate VERRY ELEEGANT at $4.00.
That market has changed dramatically in the past 48 hours with the former now firming to be clear-cut favourite at $3.30 and the latter out to $5.00.
AMPHITRITE has raced just eight times for four wins and two seconds.
Those four wins came in the first four runs of this preparation and her defeat on Saturday was the only time she has been beaten in a race this time in work.
She might be getting quite short at $3.30 but it would appear the only risk for punters is running out the 2500-metre distance.
Many, many times over the years in both Derbys’ and Oaks the winners have not been genuine stayers.
All they have to be able to do is run at least a mile (1600m) and have a turn of foot and that class can often get them home.
VERRY ELEEGANT is a conundrum for punters given her habit of over-racing and wanting to go too hard too early in her races.
She has done it at her past two starts now – the Group 3 Ethereal Stakes at 2000-metres and the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes, also at 2000-metres.
Now she steps out to 2500-metres in what is likely to be a slower tempo, which clearly could result in her being too keen again.
In her favour is that she is obviously good enough, will run the trip right out and she has Darren Weir preparing her for a Group 1 race, and that is always dangerous.
For many years the form from the Wakeful Stakes on Derby Day has been the most important form-line when trying to find the Oaks winner.
Mat Ellerton and Simon Zahra’s ARISTIA ($4.60) was most impressive winning the Wakeful on Saturday after racing close to the speed throughout.
She is by the great racehorse and sire LONHRO out of a stoutly Irish-bred Tiger Hill mare.
ARISTIA has again drawn perfectly in gate four for Damien Lane and she looks to have a fabulous each-way chance in this Oaks.
Team Hayes’ QAFILA ($8.00) was heavily backed when a creditable second in the Wakeful behind ARISTIA and on that form alone must be given a chance.
Darren Weir’s third stringer, ZAPURLER is an intriguing runner.
She is a beautifully-bred daughter of super-sire High Chaparral out of a stunning family and has a shooting star on her form-lines.
Raced just five times, ZAPURLER got out beyond 2000-metres at her last start when a sizzling maiden winner at Echuca.
This is a whole new ball game tackling Group 1 grade, but she will clearly stay and appears to have a touch of class as well.
If anything this Oaks field lacks depth, but for mine AMPHITRITE is clearly first pick ahead of ARISTIA, with ZAPURLER the X-factor runner.
