NOT unlike last Saturday’s $2 million Victoria Derby, the chances in tomorrow’s Group 1 $1 million Kennedy Oaks appear, on paper, to be the top four in the race book.
While the latest TAB market would also suggest there are four winning chances, Group 1 races, particularly age-restricted Classics, are usually not that simple.
This 2019 renewal of the Oaks, just like the Derby four days ago, might be the exception.
To my eye there are four and a half chances – MIAMI BOUND, MOONLIGHT MAID, GAMAY and VEGAS JEWEL – with the ‘half’ chance being BEAUTY BOLT.
The Derby looked strong and this edition of the Oaks also looks like it has some genuine staying fillies engaged, who should go on as older horses to have significant careers.
Fresh off his amazing win with Vow And Declare in yesterday’s Melbourne Cup, trainer Danny O’Brien will put the saddle on leading Oaks contender MIAMI BOUND ($3.60 fav).
She has very appealing form-lines including a brave and tough win in last Saturday’s Group 2 $300,000 Wakeful Stakes (2000m) at Flemington.
Traditionally the Wakeful winner is always tough to beat in the Oaks, while the strength MIAMI BOUND displayed last Saturday would suggest she will stay the 2500-metres of the Oaks.
And, of course, she has the services of the great Damien Oliver, a truly remarkable rider.
Young Ballarat-based trainer Mitch Freedman is having a fairy-tale week, which may well continue with MOONLIGHT MAID ($4.00) in the Oaks.
He trained Southern Moon to run an impressive second behind Warning in last Saturday’s Victoria Derby, and he won at Flemington on Cup Day with Bravo Tango.
MOONLIGHT MAID has been impressive at her past two starts.
She came from last, against the racing pattern, when a stunning winner of the Group 2 $300,000 Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m) at Flemington on October 5, before her brave second to Soul Patch in the AAMI Vase (2040m) at The Valley on Cox Plate Day.
Soul Patch enhanced that form by running a strong third in the Victoria Derby, suggesting MOONLIGHT MAID’S form-lines are as good as any.
Impressive Pierro filly GAMAY ($6.00) is owned by some racing ‘heavyweights’, including Coolmore, but she has displayed some real staying prowess at her past two starts.
She ran a brave second at Flemington after being wide throughout behind Celestial Falls late in September, before stepping up to win the Group 3 Ethereal Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield.
On that occasion she held off VEGAS JEWEL ($4.00), who pushed MIAMI BOUND on Saturday in the Wakeful and will be very tough to beat in this Oaks.
It is worth noting GAMAY, drawn perfectly in barrier one, will be ridden by star international jockey Ryan Moore, who is the contract rider for Coolmore around the world.
He replaces Declan Bates who has done nothing wrong on the filly all preparation.
VEGAS JEWEL ($4.00) completes our ‘quaddie’ of chances and she has very strong form leading into this 2500-metre trip.
She came from last when a closing and close second to GAMAY in the Group 3 Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield, before doing a similar thing when second in the Wakeful on Saturday.
Trainer Mark Kavanagh is no stranger to winning big Group 1 races. This filly’s sire, Shocking, won a Melbourne Cup for Kavanagh.
VEGAS JEWEL looks certain to run the journey right out and that in itself can be enough between winning and losing for three-year-old fillies at this time of the year.
BEAUTY BOLT ($15) is another who has been waiting for this longer journey.
She made up a stack of ground when an eye-catching fifth to Moonlight Maid in the Edward Manifold, before again closing late when a close fifth in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Classic (1600m) on Cox Plate Day.
Trainer Pat Carey is a master horseman with stayers and he will have this filly at her top.
Good race, but for mine, VEGAS JEWEL and GAMAY are the two to beat with obviously BEAUTY BOLT the best roughie.
Good luck!
