Indications are that the families of three legendary trainers – Tommy Smith, Bart Cummings and Colin Hayes – will share in the major spoils of the $2 million Victoria Derby.
During their illustrious careers Smith and Cummings both won the blue riband event five times while Hayes had four victories in the race.
T.J.s daughter Gai Waterhouse, in partnership with Adrian Bott, will saddle the short priced Thinkin’ Big, while Bart’s grandson James has the second favourite Aramayo.
Added to that C.S’s son David, who trains in conjunction with his son Ben and Tom Dabernig, has chances with Mickey Blues and Sikorsky.
As could be expected with their family backgrounds Gai, James and David each already have Victoria Derby wins to their credit.
Gai won with Nothin’ Leica Dane in 1995, James prepared the 2016 winner Prized Icon – his father Anthony also scored with Fiveandahalfstar in 2012 – and David was triumphant with Blevic back in 1994 and Kibbutz in 2007.
Thinkin’ Big has a similar racing style and conformation to Nothin’ Leica Dane, who is close up in his pedigree, and is shaping as the three-year-old to beat.
A bold, front-running type he has also followed a similar program having finished third to Maid in Heaven and Aramayo in the Gr.1 Spring Champion Stakes when unsuited by the soft ground.
He was then beautifully rated by Tim Clark when he redeemed himself by bolting away with the Caulfield Classic two weeks ago.
They were races that Nothin’ Leica Dane won on his way to the Derby.
Aramayo, who will be handled by last year’s winning jockey Tye Angland, will be trying to break a sequence of six placings by Godolphin runners in the blue riband event.
The winner of the Spring Stakes at Newcastle on October 6 Aramayo was another unsuited by the soft track in the Spring Champion Stakes but ran home strongly when third to Stars of Carrum and Savoire in last week’s Moonee Valley Vase.
He will be better suited at Flemington and, interestingly, Prized Icon was fifth in the Vase on the way to his success a week later.
Since winning the Dulcify Quality at Randwick Mickey Blue Eyes has finished respectable fifths in the Spring Champion Stakes and the Vase and will appreciate going onto a bigger track and longer distance.
Stablemate Sikorsky staked claims with a solid third to Thinkin’ Big and Chipada in the Caulfield Classic, however, the other Hayes-Hayes-Dabernig runner Seberate will have to lift his game to figure in the finish.
Two others with Victoria Derby trophies to their credit – Robbie Laing and Mike Moroney – are going up against the Smith, Cummings and Hayes dynasties.
Laing, who won with Polanski in 2013, has given Stars of Carrum a thoroughly solid grounding and foundation for the 2500m.
The benefit of this was evident when he produced a whirlwind finish to score in the very last stride after conceding the Darren Weir-trained Savoire about four lengths start into the straight in the Vase.
That will have him primed to run the 2500m right out.
Moroney, who has won Victoria Derbies with Second Coming (1997) and Monaco Consul (2009), has a genuine contender in Chipada, who was an encouraging second in the Caulfield Classic.
It is a bonus for Chipada that he will have the services of James McDonald.
Weir’s Extra Brut and Tony McEvoy’s Farooq, who is by the great racehorse Frankel, will appreciate the track and distance and are worth considering for exotics.
