NOW we have all accepted the best stayers in the world come from Europe it’s time to join the winning team – them!
It’s no longer an US versus THEM story on Melbourne Cup Day – ‘they’ have taken over, and the proof is clearly visible in tomorrow’s Cup field.
Two of the 24 runners were bred in Australia – YES, two!
Twelve are genuine international ‘raiders’, while eight others are former international stayers now owned and trained in Australia.
That leaves last year’s Victoria Derby winner ACE HIGH ($61) and last season’s Queensland Oaks winner YOUNGSTAR ($16) as the locally bred runners.
Both are by the great and now deceased sire High Chaparral.
The market is dominated by international runners which can be off-putting and confusing for Australian punters, who simply don’t know the horses.
And for such a unique race as the Melbourne Cup when EVERYONE wants to have a bet, but most know very little about what they are betting on, it can be very confusing.
At least we have seen the Cup favourite YUCATAN ($5.50) once, when he was a sensational winner of the Herbert Power at Caulfield on Guineas Day.
The Aiden O’Brien trained five-year-old has won just three of 13 starts, but if you believe your eyes, and he performs at the same level again, he’ll probably win the Cup.
But, on Melbourne Cup day there are a lot of variables like a crowd of 100,000, noise, 24 runners, potential traffic issues in the race, etc etc.
If you’re keen to look at some replays of the international runners you can find European websites to accommodate (‘youtube’ has many of them as well).
We can’t tip every horse and you can’t back every runner, so I’ll try to sort out the ones that have taken my eye when doing the form.
MARMELO ($15) was here last year and was an eye-catching run in the Caulfield Cup when sixth behind Boom Time.
He came from a long way back that day before being ridden aggressively in the Melbourne Cup and tiring to run ninth.
This year connections decided against racing in Australia before the Cup, instead relying on a fabulous second in the Group 2 Prix Kergorlay (3000m) at Deauville in France as his final hit-out.
He has raced four times since last year’s Cup for two wins and two seconds, so clearly he has lost none of his ability or form and rates very highly this year.
The engagement again of local super-star rider Hugh Bowman (Winx) is another serious plus.
The John Gosden-trained MUNTAHAA ($12) will also go straight into the Cup without a run here.
He was a simply brilliant come-from-behind winner of the famous Ebor Handicap at York at his last start on August 25.
The Ebor winner always runs well in the Melbourne Cup and this horse has a fabulous sense of timing about him.
Oaks-winning mare YOUNGSTAR ($15) may well be the forgotten horse of this race and I can’t work out why.
She was brilliant when second to Winx in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington, before having a chequered run when a closing sixth to best Solution in the Caulfield Cup.
She gets into this race with a light weight, a champion rider in Craig Williams and will start from a perfect barrier – 8. She ticks a lot of boxes.
AVILIUS ($14) for James Cummings and Godolphin could be the horse to break the hoodoo for the all-blue team in the Melbourne Cup.
They have been coming here for more than 20 years and despite running second twice, have yet to hold the gold cup aloft.
This horse has the perfect form to win the Cup, with four impressive wins at his first four runs in the country, before running fourth to Winx in the Cox Plate.
There is nothing wrong with BEST SOLUTION’S ($12) form either.
He came to Australia for Godolphin in brilliant form winning a Group 2 race in the UK before back-to-back Group 1 races in Germany.
He then produced a stunning performance to narrowly win the Caulfield Cup. His biggest issue is the 57.5kgs he will have to carry to win.
MAGIC CIRCLE ($9.00) is a UK runner who has won eight of 21 starts, but this seven-year-old has won his past two starts by six lengths.
Yes they have been in Listed and Group 3 level and this is his first start in a Group 1 race, but big winning margins always suggest a horse is flying.
CROSS COUNTER ($9.00) is the other raider with impressive form. He’s raced only seven times for four wins and two seconds, all in strong company.
He won two of his past three starts before a narrow second at Group 2 level last start when a $2.50 favourite.
This year’s Melbourne Cup field has great depth and many different form-lines for punters to negotiate.
Clearly luck in running, tempo and the ride given to many of these horses will determine the winner.
Undoubtedly YUCATAN will be tough to beat if the same one from Caulfield turns up, but I’ll be having something on MARMELO, MUNTAHAA and YOUNGSTAR.
Best roughies for mine are SOUND CHECK ($41) and Victoria Derby winner ACE HIGH ($61), who will relish getting back to Flemington.
Good luck with whatever you back tomorrow!
