MELBOURNE’S famous fickle weather has certainly been on display this week causing punters lots of grief.
The question beckons – will it do the same again tomorrow at Flemington for Stakes Day?
At the time of writing the track at headquarters was rated a ‘Good 4’ – perfect for racing, albeit with the rail out an unfortunate nine metres given the wear and tear on the track since Derby Day.
The forecast for Melbourne is for a chilly top temperature of 14 degrees with ‘occasional’ showers – whatever that might mean!
Given the fabulous drying qualities of this Flemington circuit, we will do our form for a relatively dry surface.
This renewal of the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes has produced a deep, fascinating race with a full field of 16.
The latest TAB market has New Zealand wonder-mare MELODY BELLE the $3.10 favourite off the back of her stunning win in the Group 1 $1 million Myer Stakes (1600m) last Saturday.
The variables this week are tackling open-age all-sex stars at weight-for-age and again from a wide gate – this time barrier 16.
At first look the barrier is a real problem, but given the patterns of the first three days of the week and the way the track has ‘cut-out’ near the inside, it may not be such an issue.
MELODY BELLE came from near last and won with stunning authority last Saturday against our best mares – amazingly it was her seventh Group 1 win this year, and tenth overall.
There is no doubt this Mackinnon Stakes is a stronger race than last week’s Empire Rose, but, she carries the same weight (57kgs) under these WFA conditions.
Not to mention she meets most of her rivals 2kgs better and at the end of 2000-metres that can be significant.
Twice she has raced over this trip – the Group 1 New Zealand Stakes and the Group 1 Livamol Stakes – for two wins.
There is one thing which is irrefutable about MELODY BELLE – she is a genuine racetrack star who has clearly been under-estimated by Australian punters.
Perhaps that won’t be the case any longer!
Her principle rivals tomorrow appear to be international mare MAGIC WAND ($8.00) and veteran galloper HUMIDOR ($9.50).
‘Old’ HARTNELL ($9.00), Godolphin’s amazing veteran performer who never runs poorly has to be rated highly as well, given he will get his preferred racing surface on one of his favourite tracks.
Looking closely at MAGIC WAND’S form one could very easily come to the conclusion 2000-metres is her favourite distance.
Performances at that trip include a second in the Group 1 Pretty Polly at The Curragh; second in the Group 1 Arlington Million in the US; second in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes behind the brilliant Magical and fourth in the Cox Plate.
She raced in Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup and was hardly disgraced finishing a close-up tenth, beaten just 3.6 lengths.
HUMIDOR charged home when fifth to UK galloper CAPE OF GOOD HOPE ($19), a rival again tomorrow, in the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m), before again running on late when fourth to Hunting Horn in a slowly run Moonee Valley Gold Cup.
This is his track with wins in the Group 1 Australian Cup (2000m) and Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) already on his CV.
The best roughie may be last year’s VRC Oaks winner ARISTIA ($16), who was a brave second in last Saturday’s Empire Rose Stakes (1600m) behind MELODY BELLE.
While at the end she was no match for the winner, she beat the rest comfortably and has drawn low to get a soft run throughout here.
For mine MELODY BELLE will win again with MAGIC WAND, HUMIDOR and ARISTIA the dangers and multiples runners.
Good luck!