SURELY the most significant factor when assessing the form for this Group 1 $500,000 George Main Stakes (1600m) has to be the heavy track.
As is so often the case in Sydney in the Spring, heavy rain has turned Randwick into a very wet affair – albeit an improving ‘heavy 9’.
Our task is to sort out those who handle the conditions and those who don’t.
Clearly the two runners most favoured by a heavy track are the TAB’S $3.20 favourite AVILIUS, and last season’s ATC Oaks winner VERRY ELEGANT ($6.50).
AVILIUS has raced twice on heavy ground for two runaway wins, both at Group 1 level in last autumn’s Ranvet Stakes and Tancred Stakes.
VERRY ELEGANT is also two from two on heavy ground, as well as having won three of four on soft ground, so the wet track is an advantage for her as well.
New Zealand-trained mare DANZDANZDANCE ($14) has a win, a second and a third from three runs on heavy ground, including a close second to champion mare Melody Belle in the Group 1 New Zealand Stakes back in March.
Last season’s ATC Derby winner, ANGEL OF TRUTH, also has strong credential on wet ground.
He led throughout to win the Group 3 Tulloch Stakes on a ‘heavy 10’ before doing the same in the Derby on a ‘soft 7’.
The in-form SAMADOUBT ($7.00), already a winner this season of the Group 1 Winx Stakes and the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes, does not have a strong record on heavy ground.
From four starts he has one second placing – in a Benchmark 67 at Canterbury in June 2017 – hardly a convincing statistic.
Second favourite, DREAMFORCE ($4.60), has a solid record on wet ground without actually having won a race.
He’s had three starts on soft ground for three seconds, including a brave second to Brutal in last season’s Group 1 Doncaster.
From two heavy-track runs he has one third placing in last season’s Group 1 George Ryder behind Winx and Brutal.
That leaves the old marvel – HAPPY CLAPPER ($5.50) – a winner of almost $7 million.
Yet, from just three starts on heavy ground he is yet to win having just one second placing to his credit, in the Group 1 Doncaster behind It’s Somewhat in 2017.
It’s fair to suggest Godolphin’s AVILIUS has already been costly for punters this Spring, but for the first time he gets his preferred soft ground.
His record on soft or heavy ground is fabulous, albeit in most cases over more ground that the 1600-metres of this George Main Stakes.
For mine he’s the one to beat, but I can see plenty of dangers.
Chris Waller has done a great job with the former wayward VERRY ELEGANT, now a multiple Group 1 winner, and she flies on wet ground.
I think SAMADOUBT is a genuine query on heavy ground and given his usual racing pattern of leading, it too may be a problem on this track by race seven.
DREAMFORCE will go forward and his wet-track form looks good enough, while the Kiwi DANZDANZDANCE and ANGEL OF TRUTH could be serious trifecta and first-four players.
AVILIUS to win, just, from a wall of them!
Good luck!
