THE art of betting on two-year-old racing can invariably come down to trusting what your eye sees.
This renewal of the Group 1 $1.5 million Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) is strong with real depth – but after watching all the replays, three horses stand out.
They are Godolphin’s HANSEATIC, the $2.40 favourite, Peter and Paul Snowden’s RULERSHIP, the $6.00 second favourite, and Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young’s LETZBEGLAM ($6.50).
In fact my eye is telling me LETZBEGLAM is an each-way special.
Not just on what the replay details, but times and barrier draws.
Let’s have a closer look.
Clearly HANSEATIC has done nothing wrong winning his three starts, each time displaying an impressive turn of foot, and he looks an exceptional colt.
RULERSHIP has similar credentials with an easy all-the-way win on debut at Randwick in Sydney before a brave and impressive second to HANSEATIC.
That was in the Blue Diamond Prelude when he was run down in the last few strides by the big Street Boss colt, but lost no admirers.
LETZBEGLAM has raced twice for two runaway wins.
She led throughout to score an easy win on debut beating a small but decent field, before drawing wide, racing wide, and roaring away in the fillies division of the Blue Diamond Prelude.
That was on the same day as HANSEATIC’S Prelude win and she was 0.29 quicker over the 1100 metres.
History will tell you one of the hardest things for young racehorses to do is race wide and win.
They invariably need a rail to guide them early in their racing careers, not to mention the fact most races are over short distances and every inch, so to speak, really counts!
History will also show that in many editions of the Blue Diamond Stakes the winner has been handy to the leaders turning for home.
While there is no doubting HANSEATIC’S class, his racing pattern – getting back and running on – is a query for punters in this race.
Throw in barrier one, normally a huge bonus in these races, and the potential for being held up at a crucial stage becomes a genuine possibility.
This is not an issue for both RULERSHIP and LETZBEGLAM, who on past performances will be in the first six or seven as the field settles down.
From barrier three LETZBEGLAM has options and rider Brett Prebble can assess his dangers and how his filly is travelling all the way.
RULERSHIP will jump from barrier seven and he being an on-pace runner will also give his rider – Mark Zahra – options.
Luke Currie, the defending champion with Lyre last year, will partner HANSEATIC and forget about options for him – his only aim will be to getting off the fence and into clear air.
If he does that he’ll probably win – if he can’t get clear air the $2.40 is poison odds.
For mine the $6.50 on offer for LETZBEGLAM is very appealing and I’ll be having some of that.
Given we have only talked about three runners, a mention for others like Magic Millions winner AWAY GAME ($11) and MUNTASEERA ($10) is appropriate.
