Qipco Champions Day, Ascot, October 20th 2018
Hi guys, first of all I wish to update you about what happened in the UK in the last few days.
Tattersalls October Yearling Sale, Book 1, Wednesday October 10th, Lot 325: a bay colt by Dubawi ex Dar Re Mei (Singspiel), owned, bred and consigned by Watership Down Stud, Burghclere, Newbury, Berkshire, went into the ring.
The very successful Watership Down Stud is owned by Lord Andrew Lloyd – Webber and by his wife Madeleine and was founded in 1992.
Lord Lloyd – Webber, 70, is the top composer of music of our era: I believe that you remember Jesus Christ Superstar, Evita, Cats, the Phantom of the Opera, don’t you?
In 1984, at Goffs, Kills, Co. Kildare, Ireland, the Lloyd – Webbers, through the agent Charlie Gordon – Watson, now a top one, but at the time a “novice” with a lot of scope, have acquired the outstanding mare Darara (IRE) (Top Ville), who was a half sister to the exceptional Darshaan (GB) (Shirley Heights) from HH the Aga Khan Studs, exactly from Shesoon Stud, in foal to Shirley Heights (GB) (Mill Reef), for Irish Guineas 470,000.
Dar Re Mi is a daughter of the mighty Darara.
This colt is a full brother to So Mi Dar, a Gr-3 winner, to Lah Ti Dar a Stake winner and this year second in the William Hill St- Leger and, of course, to Too Darn Hot, who dominated the Darley Dewhurst Stakes, Gr-1, 7f, last week at Newmarket, becoming Champion 2-Y-0 in Europe.
As Lot 325 he was knocked down to Qatar Racing, the racing establishment of HE Sheikh Fahd Al Thani for Guineas 3,500,000 and he will be trained, at Newmarket, by John Gosden.
The Guineas is now a fictitious currency, the equivalent of one Pound and five pence, but in the past was proper money.
The Guinea, which is 5% more than the price expressed in Pounds, is what the purchaser of a horse pays at the sale in the UK: the sales in that country are conducted in Guineas.
Too Darn Hot, at the moment, in the ante – post market for the 2019 QIPCO 2000 Guineas, is trading between 5/4 and 7/4 and for the Investec Derby is trading and between 11/4 and 9/2.
If you want to support this horse in this kind of market please bear in mind: 1) Tood Darn Hot, when he was a yearling didn’t go under the hammer of any auctioneer because of some issue revealed making X-Rays, 2) So Mi Dar and Lah Ti Dar both suffered setbacks as three – year – olds and 3) So Mi Dar again at four.
So Too Darn Hot could be a fragile horse, as the Racing Post stated a few days ago, but his performance in the Darley Dewhurst Stakes was very impressive.
The Racing Post gave him a Rating of 126, the same which gave to Frankel (GB) (Galileo): he is followed by Quorto (GB) (Dubawi), a Gr-1 winner in Ireland, who is pretty small and could not train on at 3 and by Ten Sovereign (IRE) (No Nay Never), unbeaten in three races and a Gr-1 winner, who, next year, could be reserved for the sprinting distances, unless during the winter will not show different features.
By the way, six years after the Darara transaction, in the year 2000, Signor Alessandro Botti, paid Irish Guineas 2,600 for a yearling filly by Hernando, later named Holy Moon (IRE) at the Goffs Sales: another good result for that company!
She became the dam of several Gr-1 winners and, of course, of Sea Of Class (IRE) (Sea The Stars), 3, who lost the 2018 Qatar Arc de Triomphe by inches (and I don’t tell you why).
My first racing day in this country, UK, goes back to the Summer of the year 1970 (when Nijinsky (USA) (Northern Dancer) won the Triple Crown.
Graduated in law, before starting to work as a lawyer, in August, I went to London and then to Windsor, staying in the middle of the course.
Since then it never happened to me to be so scared to write a preview for a Meeting.
The ground will play a very important part today: heavy, soft or sticky it doesn’t matter and we are also at the end of a very tiring season.
From a punter point of view, it will be absolutely difficult to pick up a winner: if you go with the favourites, they can win or they can finish nowhere.
There are too many ifs and too many buts for every single horse.
From a bookmaker point of view, in my opinion, you should take them all on, increasing your liability, taking a chance: caviar and champagne for dinner this evening or baked potatoes.
This business goes this way all the time for the big Metings: one day you smile and the day after you cry, but at the end of the year the hedge is in favour of the layers.
As I said, the going will be: Straight course – SOFT; Round course – HEAVY (Soft in places) (Partly cloudy).
1.30PM GMT: they will be off and running in QIPCO British Champions Long Distance Cup, Gr-2, 2m, for 3yo+, with a total prize money of £ 500,000.
I wish to inform you that I’ll take all the favourites on: good luck Signor Carlo Zuccoli.
This year Stradivarius (IRE) (Sea The Stars), 4, completed a poker, winning four Cups, getting a bonus of £ 1,000,000.
Nobody knows if he will handle that kind of ground tomorrow and his best price is evens.
Let’s try Flag Of Honour (IRE) (Galileo), 3, who won the Comer Group Irish St. Leger, Gr-1, easily at 2/1, beating Latrobe (IRE) (Camelot), who won the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby, Gr-1.
This horse won on heavy ground: he is trading between 2/1 and 9/4.
Sir Erec (IRE) (Camelot) will make a big step up in class, but very likely he is the most improving horse in the field.
Between 10/1 and 12/1 could be a good each way.
The Timeform adjusted for the race speaks clearly in favour of Stradivarius with a rating of 134: 127 for Flag Of Honour and 120p for Sir Erec.
2.00PM GMT: QIPCO British Champion Sprint Stakes, Gr-1, 6f, for 3yo+, with a total prize money of £ 632.500.
The in – form horse is Limato (IRE) (Tagula), 6, but he hates soft ground; another in form horse, who loves juice in the ground, is Projection (GB) (Acclamation), 5, trading between 14/1 and 20/1.
On October 6th, at Ascot, he won a Gr-3.
Let’s try an each way bet on Projection.
2.40PM GMT QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares, Gr-1, 1m3f211y, for 3yo+, with a total prize money of £ 600,000.
On paper it seems that Lah Ti Dar (GB) (Dubawi), full sister to Tood Darn Hot, runs on her own (Timeform 130p).
In the William Hill St. Leger, at Doncaster, where she finished second to Kew Gardens (IRE) (Galileo), in the early stages she was quite keen on good ground.
She is the favourite between 11/10 and 6/4.
Maestro Andrè Fabre will move from France Kitesurf (GB) (Dubawi), who won a very important Group1 last time out, the Qatar Prix Vermeille, where she was the favourite.
At the moment she is between 4/1 and 5/1: a very good each way (Timeform 127).
She handles the soft ground (the dam is by Danehill Dancer (IRE) (Danehill) and his progeny want a cut in the ground.
At 3.15PM GMT Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, Gr-1, (sponsored by QIPCO) 1m, for 3yo+, with a total prize money of £ 1,156,250.
Another strong favourite, Roaring Lion (USA) (Kitten’s Joy), 3.
He is offered by the bookmakers between 2/1 and 9/4 and his Timeform rating is 139 (the top one).
He has a terrific finishing speed, in other words he changes gear in a matter of few strides: ok, but on good or on firm ground, so what about on that horrible ground?
A fresh horse (he runs only when the ground is desperate) is Addeybb (IRE) (Pivotal), 4.
He is between 7/1 and 8/1.
He won the Lincoln Handicap, at Doncaster, at the beginning of the season and a Gr-2, at Sandown: his trainer, William Haggas (22% winners to runners) thinks very high on him on heavy ground (his Timeform is 133+).
A good each way.
At 3.50PM GMT QIPCO Champion Stakes, Gr-1, 1m3f, for 3to+, with a total prize money of £ 1,300,000.
At this stage probably I have thrown myself out of the top floor of the stands, but in my will there is the preview for the most important race of the afternoon.
Top Timeform rating, 145, Cracksman (GB) (Frankel), 4, who won this race last year and his price is between 4/5 and 10/11.
This year he won the Prix Ganay, Gr-1, in France and then the Investec Coronation Cup, Gr-1, at Epsom, over 1m4f.
In that race he was very lucky that Silvestre De Sousa, commonly known as SDS, Champion Jockey last year and this year, with Salouen (IRE) (Canford Cliffs), in the closing stages, didn’t go close to stand rail, otherwise he would have been beaten.
Have you heard of Salouen?
I really doubt it.
Then Cracksman ran in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, Gr-1, at the Royal Meeting, at Ascot, and he was beaten by Poet’s Word (IRE) (Poet’s Word), 5, who subsequently won the QIPCO King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Gr-1, 1m4f, at Ascot.
My Irish spies told me that the Coolmore Group and Aidan O’Brien used the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, Gr-1, 1m4f, where he finished fifth, to get Capri (IRE) (Galileo) ready for this race: last year he won the William Hill St. Leger.
He loves heavy ground, I think that he has enough speed for a mile and a quarter and he is between 5/1 and 13/2: a very good each way bet.
A danger could be Crystal Ocean (GB) (Sea The Stars) between 5/2 and 11/4.
I love his owner and breeder, Sir Evelyn de Rothschild, a very important banker, who last year switched from banking to chocolate (he opened a shop in London).
At Doncaster, before the St. Leger, I asked him why he did that and he replied: “Banking is bad for your brain and chocolate is very good for your brain”.
His Timeform rating is 141 and he finished second in the King George of Poet’s Word.
Good luck!
Breaking News.
Cracksman is now fitted with blinkers as his trainer and his jockey think that he could be more concentrated in his job.
They were looking for the cut in the ground since the month of June, but now they found heavy ground.
Will he cope with this type of ground?
Nobody knows and this is why I believe that his price is very skinny, too skinny
Carlo Zuccoli
