PUNTING on racehorses is never easy.
It seems for every hard and fast rule there are always exceptions, and for those exceptions always variables.
Take tomorrow’s $5 million All Star Mile for example.
At the time of writing this preview and at the same time trying to guide you in some small way in the right direction, the following facts confront me.
The weather is warm and we have had no rain.
The track is rated a ‘Good 4’ with the false rail out six metres the entire circuit.
So, what’s the issue?
Well, our friends at the Weather Bureau are suggesting we have 20mls of rain on the way with possible thunderstorms which will contain ‘serious’ rain.
So, will the track be dry or should I prepare for wet ground?
At the last meeting at Caulfield it was a ‘screaming leaders track’ when the false rail was out three metres.
Leaders or run-on horses now with the rail out an extra three metres?
The late and great Bart Cummings had many, many sayings attributed to him – mostly true and mostly accurate.
One of them was about being patient in this game. It went like this.
“Patience is the only thing in racing that is free.”
Therefore, my advice, stolen from the great man himself, is to be patient. Wait and watch.
You will know a lot more by 4.30 tomorrow afternoon when you will have 20 minutes or so to place a bet on this intriguing race.
My opinion on this race doesn’t vary much with wet or dry conditions – just the level of confidence.
If we’re racing on a relatively dry surface, I like the Kiwi wonder-mare MELODY BELLE ‘just’ ahead of the favourite ALLIGATOR BLOOD.
The more rain we get the more I like the mare. Slow ground makes her super tough to beat and heavy ground puts her in the near ‘moral’ category (in my opinion).
Sydney raider FIERCE IMPACT is a fabulous miler and his record on slow ground is very good, which means he can win this race without any surprise at all.
Don’t be surprised to see WA stars REGAL POWER and SUPERSTORM run well, while the big improver could be the Chris Waller-trained KOLDING.
Waller has an incredible knack of having his horses right on Grand Final Day, which this is for this horse and his soft track record is imposing.
There are not many things ‘against’ MELODY BELLE.
She absolutely has the right form and is good enough, she will handle wet or dry, has been trained for this one race, and she has the perfect barrier in gate five.
Oh, and in case you have forgotten, some of those rules I spoke about earlier include class, which she has in spades, and a record of 10 Group 1 wins which cannot be argued!
