Our starting point was with the new season four-years-old as Peter Ellis Racing looks to identify qualities that previous winners show on the day when producing a career peak when it counts the most for connections.
Trainers’ skill plays a key part as they ensure the thoroughbreds under their care, own attributes that allow the rider to make tactical decisions, if required on the day if a race shape pattern emerges. Ensuring their horse can race on speed if required or settle back race wide without cover and not over race, remaining relaxed. As the layout of the track does provide a slight advantage to those gallopers that can race on “on-speed” especially if the tempo isn’t true, a vital question the rider must answer especially if they turn out of the straight the first time at a steady speed.
So many pieces of a complex puzzle being considered all the time by Peter Ellis, when finally landing on his selection the day of the race, taking all these one-percent decisions that need to be made along the way providing punters with a ‘guide’ as they look to place a ‘Spring’ double with the Caulfield Cup as part of that speculative wager.
These ‘earlier decisions’ are challenging – which races reveal ‘high level’ of performance in ‘plain sight’ regardless of ‘slow’ time which may make others query the merit of that performance, especially, if it a result is out of a weight-for-age feature.
History does tell us a string of wins can take contenders along way as previous victors like Mer de Glace (Rulership – Glacier) show.
This horse strung four victories together in 2019 prior to the Caulfield Cup win, Mer de Glace was strong through the line denying subsequent Melbourne Cup winner Vow and Declare (Declaration of War – Geblitzt).
This season, Incentivise offers a similar ‘winning’ profile unlike Mer de Glace the Japanese horse had raced 17-timess prior to the Caulfield Cup win. Incentivise (as of September 20th) has only faced the starter 10-times.
By the Cox Plate winner Shamus Award (by Snitzel) the bay gelding is out of Gimcrack Stakes placed Miss Argyle (by Iglesia) a sister of dual stakes winner Diamondsondinside that gelding won 15-races over distances that ranged from 1200 m. up to 2200 m. Currently Incentivise sits in sixth position in ballot order and is guaranteed a start, if fit and well.
Another runner that is guaranteed a run in the feature is Nonconformist winner of the Club’s Group 3 Foundation Cup (2000 m.) last Saturday, moving up to number two in the order of entry. Out of a mare that won three races from distance ranges of 1200 m. to 1950 m. the gelding is another lightly raced contender with 17-runs banked. On the flip side of this the brown gelding is only being asked to carry 51.5 kilos next month and is by the 2008 VRC Derby winner Rebel Raider that horse is by Reset, sire of the 2013 Caulfield Cup winner Fawkner (ex Dane Belltar).
Sir Dragonet (by Camelot) adds plenty of intrigue to the handicap the horse ran in Ireland’s Gold Cup in 2020, held at the Curragh finishing runner-up to Magical (by Galileo). Connections paid plenty of gold coin for the stallion the horse has repaid them 10-fold winning the 100th edition of the MVRC’s W.S. Cox Plate and for good measure Sir Dragonet added the ATC’s Group 1 Tancred Stakes to his ‘c.v.’ the following autumn.
The brown stallion appears to have returned in great shape with a cracking first-up effort when third in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes, September 11th, behind Incentivise.
Sir Dragonet hails from an excellent female line the horses full-brother Sir Lucan is in-work and racing in the northern hemisphere. Both horses are out of the stakes-placed Sparrow in-turn out of the stakes winning-All Too Beautiful (by Sadler’s Wells) a daughter of the 1993 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Urban Sea (by Miswaki).
Urban Sea is best known as the dam of super sire Galileo, an Epsom & Irish Derby, along with, Sea the Stars another Epsom Derby winner and many other black type winners.
At the top of the 2021 Caulfield Cup ballot is Mount Poppa (by Maxios) courtesy of that gelding’s effort in winning the Club’s Listed Mornington Cup (2400 m.) in March. The seven-year-old is trained for his owners by John, Michael, and Wayne Hawkes. This imported thoroughbred has fascinating form, and pedigree lines. The seven-year-old descends from a female family that’s produced Luso (four G1 wins in Germany) and Warrsan (two G1 wins in Germany & as many in England) – punters will need to see an improvement in the current seasons results from this galloper.
