(14 races over 2 days)
Beginning with the first of 5 races at 6:30am Melbourne time on Saturday morning
Then the first of 9 races beginning at 5:00am Melbourne time on Sunday morning with the last occurring just more than 5 hours later
While there will be many classy individuals present, and potentially some significant upsets included, the search for wagering value won’t be an easy task. American punters have long adopted the multi-race bets such as the “Quaddie” as their favorite ventures and a typical day involves (NOT-so-)careful weighing of bankable favorites vs. how deep to go on any given race. Typical approach for too many is to try to string just a few too many successes resulting only in one more in a lifetime of “bad beat” or “near miss” stories.
If ever there were a time for a future invention of a machine into which you could deposit your total bankroll for two days, along with all of your personal selections on the races, and then just push a button that said: “optimize” (to let a computer lay your chips in the best way possible), Breeders’ Cup meetings would be perfect for it.
Instead, American punters will involve themselves with wagers stacking race after race after race, with success possible only when all goes well. Progressive wagering building to an “all or nothing” venture late in the day leads to the doom of most punters.
The 2020 Breeders’ Cup figures more difficult yet because those less likely to participate because of Covid are the novices who tend to add plenty of money to the pools on the big days. Those people will be participating in very limited fashion with no fans on track and many Off Track Betting locations closed due to Covid. Only the ‘sharks’ will swim in the parimutuel waters.
With that established… now a little about each race:
Race 6 from Keeneland, Kentucky on (Saturday Melbourne time) begins the Breeders’ Cup:
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
Potentially the most probable winner over two days is Golden Pal, who may well tower over the competition. The barrier draw could be the equalizer as Golden Pal is drawn on the outside of 14 on what is the standard U.S. turf course of moderate size. Golden Pal does have a quick and immediate turn of foot but there are many speed horses drawn to his immediate inside and a fast start is imperative. Do or die from out there.
A suitable roughie is Lipizzaner, trained by Aidan O’Brien, but before we go any further it should be emphasized that Aidan O’Brien has lost his last 56 races in a row on North American soil. His last winner in North America was in July of 2018 and O’Brien is 0-8-7 from 56 chances since then.
The BC Juvenile Turf Sprint figures to be quite a scrum and perhaps not one worth dwelling on for very long. (might be best to begin a multi-race wager there for a SMALL investment before moving on…)
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
Second up is a very competitive affair in which Aidan O’Brien will try again to win a rare race in America where he is a modest 28-for-281 lifetime. This race has a good group of European invaders with only a couple of American runners rating a serious shot. IN order of interest in a race where we’ll go deep in our Quaddie, we’ll take Battleground, Go Athletico, Cadillac, Sealiway, New Mandate, and Outadore (9,12,5,1,2,8).
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
This seems the smallest Breeders’ Cup group in a while but what is lacking in quantity is offset by considerable quality. The Bob Baffert-trained Princess Noor has been an impressive winner in each of 3 starts and although she’ll have to go faster to compete with these, the guess is that there is much more under the hood. Quaddie strategy would be to have multiple tickets with some using only Princess Noor at low odds, and others using all 5 of the main contenders, perhaps just to get past the race. IN ORDER we’re taking Princess Noor, Dayoutoftheoffice, Girl Daddy, Vequist, and Simply Ravishing (7,3,5,2,1).
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies TURF
Here is what is perhaps the single most wide-open race in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup program. Add to it 14 two-year-old fillies on a moderate sized turf course and most anything could happen. Those wanting or needing to take a narrow stand here can get away with using Wesley Ward-trained Campanelle (a stakes-winner in both England and France). She has plenty of speed to offer and Frankie Dettori to ride so that is the inside passage toward success. Once behind her, though, this race has lots of different options that each make some sense. Local runner Aunt Pearl is 2-for-2 in impressive fashion but may need to step up her game to top all of the foreign interests. This is another race were a two-pronged Quaddie approach makes sense: Use only Campanelle on smaller tickets and surround her with Aunt Pearl, Mother Earth, Plum Ali, Oodnadatta, Miss Amulet and Alda (10,5,8,4,1,2,3) on deeper Quaddie tickets. Those with more daring might use “all” in this leg in case it sets off a giant return.
Breeders Cup Juvenile
The first day of Breeders’ Cup ends with still another race which is a reasonable candidate to use “all” runners at the end of the Quaddie. A talented and exceptionally well-balanced pedigree drew our attention to Essential Quality, who already has a stakes win at today’s track and distance 5 weeks ago. Improvement is quite likely in just his 3rd career start. Most of our stand in the Quaddie for this race will include IN order of preference, Essential Quality, Classier, Jackie’s Warrior, Reinvestment Risk, Sittin On Go, and Rombauer (5,8,7,3,9,13). Could limit that to the top trio if wanting to limit costs.
That ends day one of Breeders’ Cup 2020.
Saturday’s big races begin with the BC Filly & Mare Sprint and the most likely winner of the day, Bob Baffert-trained Gamine. She will be the heavy favorite in a race that is fairly wide-open below her. A good strategy might be to begin a Quaddie here using only Gamine, and begin a “pick-three” here using some of the following IN order of interest: (Gamine), Speech, Serengeti Empress, Bell’s the One and perhaps Come Dancing (2,1,7,9,3)
The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Race figures to be quite a scrum which will be decided based on trip and traffic with success most likely for Glass Slippers, Got Stormy, Imprimis, Leinster, Front Run the Fed, Oleksandra, and Into Mystic (6,12,13,7,4,8,9 in order)
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
In a race void of European invaders we’ll take shot on talented 3-year-old Art Collector, who raced in some traffic for much of the first half of his most recent contest and behind the slowest opening quarter-mile in the Preakness in years. Rates another chance with clear sailing and added maturity. A couple of others will take heavy wagering and one of those may be the one, but they will likely be overbet. In order we’d cover Art Collector, Complexity, Mr Freeze, Knicks Go and War of Will (1,10,9,5,4) in the Quaddie.
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Quite often Europeans are the way to go in this contest but its a race where you should probably go somewhat deep if needing to include the winner for multi-race bets. American runner Rushing Fall is 11-for-14 lifetime with $2.5 Mil. in the bank, AND she is 5-for-6 over the Keeneland lawn. A good roughie is Terebellum for Godolphin with Frankie Dettori riding and listed at 20-to-1 in the morning line. Can see including all of the following IN order of interest: Rushing Fall, Terebellum, Sistercharlie, Peaceful, Starship Jubiliee, Mean Mary, Civil Union, Audarya and Cayenne Pepper (6,7,2,3,1,4,10,11,14)
Breeders’ Cup Sprint
This event has a history of being either feast or famine for favorites with todays two favorites each riding win streaks. The choice here is speedy 3-year-old Yaupon, who drew outside of all the other speed and whose rider should have options for that reason. Can see beginning the “pick-5” with Yaupon, C Z Rocket, Frank’s Rockette, Whitmore and Collusion Illusion (in order 10-2-6-7-3).
Breeders’ Cup Mile
In a race often dominated by European shippers we’re going to stick with that premise and back Kameko, Siskin, Uni (last year’s winner), Safe Voyage, Digital Age, Factor This and Circus Maximus (in order 2,4,12,6,5,13,1). Note that Siskin (#4) is a basket case at the barrier and was blindfolded for the load in his last start, which took forever. Not expecting him to be any better here, but don’t be surprised by his antics.
Breeders’ Cup Distaff
By the time we are this far along in the card, most Americans have cast their die and are hanging on the edge while wanting mainly to remain “alive” in their Quaddies and more. With that being the case it is certain that most who remain so will be “alive” in heaviest fashion to Monomoy Girl, who hasn’t lost since 2017 (3-for-3 in 2020, and didn’t race at all in 2019). We are inclined to again hold multiple wagers on the Quaddie using only Monomoy Girl on many of them, and on others going 2- and 4-deep with Monomoy Girl, Swiss Skydiver, Ce Ce and Harvest Moon (10,5,1,2 in order).
Breeders’ Cup Turf
$4 Million purse on the line for this and the heavy favorite will be the talented Irish mare, Magical, who boasts $5.3 Million earned. British stakes-winner Mogul seems a legitimate threat and same may be true of Ireland’s Lord North, who gets Frankie today and who didn’t like the ground at Ascot in his last. In order those are 2,10,6 and we’ll have Magical alone on most of our tickets with the other pair covered on some of them.
Breeders’ Cup Classic
At first glance this grand finale seems a fitting showcase for American trainer Bob Baffert, who saddles three runners of the ten entered. Despite being a usual Baffert supporter, this corner is going to try for a no-Baffert one-two finish beginning with Tom’s d’Etat, who was a heavy favorite when meeting today’s favorite Improbable in his last race. Tom’s d’Etat broke poorly and the pace was decidedly not to his liking in last start August 1. Additionally, Tom’s d’Etat has taken a spell of rest over 3 months and he is 5-for-6 lifetime when returning on dirt after time away. Current 3yo Tiz the Law traveled just a bit farther than did winner Authentic in this year’s Kentucky Derby and Tiz the Law might land a better trip nestled along the inside in a manageable 10-horse field over 10 furlongs here. It would be wonderful to be ending Quaddies and other things “alive” to 5 runners including Tom’s d’Etat, Tiz the Law, and the Baffert trio of Authentic, Improbable, and Maximum Security (4,2,9,8,10 in order) but how often does Breeders’ Cup finish as desired?
Should be dry weather and unaffected racing surfaces at Keeneland for the annual gathering… and it will be presented without crowds other than owners and connections.
Good luck to all.