Around the time Irish galloper Vintage Crop won the Melbourne Cup in 1993 Bart Cummings, who trained an incredible 12 winners of the race, predicted that internationals would eventually dominate the event.
The Cup’s history is proving his forecast to be correct with eight of the last 10 runnings being won by horses bred in the northern hemisphere.
This dominance is becoming even more evident now that dwindling prize money in Europe is persuading overseas trainers to target the race that stops a nation, more than ever before.
Along the way Aidan O’Brien and his son Joseph have uncovered an anomaly in the Australian handicapping system, which leads to progressive northern hemisphere three-year-olds being treated leniently under the weight scale.
This follows on from the victories of northern hemisphere three-year-olds Rekindling and Cross Counter over the last three years.
Aidan O’Brien’s Tiger Moth, who is down on 52.5kg – after receiving a 2.5kg penalty – is a typical example. He has raced only four times but is obviously a colt of considerable ability.
Tiger Moth began his 2020 campaign with a victory over 2000m at Leopardstown, was then beaten a nose in the Gr.1 Irish Derby (2400m) on June 27 before demolishing his rivals in a Gr.3 over 2400m at Leopardstown on September 12.
Unfortunately for connections Tiger Moth has drawn out in barrier 23 but three-time Melbourne Cup winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy should be able to guide him into a favourable position in the run down the straight the first time.
It is also interesting to note that Vow And Declare won from 21 last year, Cross Counter – ridden by McEvoy – had 19 in 2018 and Almandin started from 17 in 2016.
Aidan O’Brien, who has had placings in the last two years, has a particularly strong hand this year because he will also be saddling Anthony Van Dyck, who is arguably the best-performed stayer to contest the Melbourne Cup.
He won the 2019 English Derby and was subsequently placed against the world’s best in both the Irish Champion Stakes (2000m) at Leopardstown and Breeders’ Cup Turf (2400m) at Santa Anita.
Anthony Van Dyke, who is burdened with topweight of 58.5kg, has shown he is racing just as well this year with a second to the top class Ghaiyyath in the Coronation Cup (2400m) at Newmarket in June and a victory over champion stayer Stradivarius in the Prix Foy (2400m) at Longchamp in September.
He was then massively impressive at his Australian debut when second to Verry Elleegant in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) when he sustained a long finishing run after jumping from a wide gate. That effort indicates he will be better suited over the roomier Flemington stretches.
Sir Dragonet, who was formerly trained by Aidan O’Brien, was also impressive at his first appearance “down under” in running away with the Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley.
Fifth placed in Anthony Van Dyck’s Derby he had four consecutive seconds – including one to the star performer Magical in the Tatt’s Gold Cup (2000m) – before being transferred to the Ciaran Maher – David Eustice combination.
However, with a temperature of 29 degrees expected on Cup Day the likelihood of a firm track will be a worry for Sir Dragonet.
Back again after winning with Rekindling in 2017 Joseph O’Brien has two legitimate chances in Master Of Reality and Twilight Payment.
Master Of Reality, looked ‘home” last year until suddenly veering left under Frankie Dettori, is going even better this time around.
He just failed to collar the lighter weighted Delphi in the Irish St. Leger (2800m) at The Curragh before winning in dashing style over 2800m at Down Royal and has only 0.5kg more to carry this year.
Twilight Payment faded to 11th after leading in 2019 but he has had a more thorough preparation with wins in the Vintage Crop (2800m) and The Curragh Cup (2800m) on his way to a third in the Irish St. Leger.
Completing the O’Brien entry Melbourne’s Danny O’Brien has Vow And Declare going after a second consecutive win as well as northern hemisphere breds Russian Camelot and King Of Leogrance.
Vow And Declare was “gifted” the Cup with a perfect ride, compliments of Craig Williams, is up 5kg and his form has been ordinary so far and his hopes seem forlorn.
A winner – including the South Australian Derby (2500m) and Underwood Stakes (1800m) at the elite level – at four of his nine starts Russian Camelot comes right into calculations.
He was used-up from a wide gate when third in the Cox Plate and Damien Oliver, who significantly has scaled down to 53.5kg, will ride him more conservatively over the 3200m.
King Of Leogrance was the winner of the Adelaide Cup (3200m) but he will need to lift his game judging on his third to Steel Prince in the Geelong Cup (2400m) on October 21.
The Charlie Fellowes stable’s Prince Of Arran has been placed in the past two Cups and obviously relishes racing in Australia.
He produced a pleasing effort when fourth in the Caulfield Cup, will be better suited at Flemington, has barrier 1 and the services of Jamie Kah so he has a lot in his favour.
Verry Elleegant is a gutsy mare who has five Gr.1s, including the Caulfield Cup, to her credit.
She seems to have her share of weight with 55.5kg and it is also worth remembering that Verry Elleegant is much better suited on giving ground rather than firm surfaces.
Ashrun, who has been brought from Germany by 2014 cup winning trainer Andreas Wohler, is in peak form as his victory in the Hotham Handicap (2500m) at Flemington on Saturday proved.
He drops 8kg to a miniscule 53kg but his jockey Declan Bates has the task of overcoming the extreme outside gate.
Surprise Baby was the “hard luck” story from last year’s Cup when fifth beaten less than a length after coming from well back but he does not appear to be racing so well this spring.
The Chris Waller-trained Finche, who was fourth to Cross Counter and seventh behind Vow And Declare, is an honest performer who is worthy of thought for the multiples judging on his decent fifth at Caulfield.
Selections
- Tiger Moth [21]
- Anthony Van Dyck [1]
- Master Of Reality [4]
- Sir Dragonet [5]
- Ashrun [18]
