Doncaster, Saturday September 15th 2018, going good to soft,
- 2.25PM GMT: Alan Wood Plumbing and Heating Park Stakes, Gr-2, 7f6y, for 3yo+, with a total prize money of £108,300.
Let’s start with the news concerning the Melbourne Cup because I believe that you Aussie guys will be interested to know who will come over from Europe.
Before the Doncaster Cup Stakes, Gr-2, I had a word with Ms. Niamh Yeats, who represented the legendary Irish trainer Willie Mullins and she told me that the participation of Thomas Hobson (GB) (Halling), 8, would have been decided after the race.
The horse duly won and she confirmed me the intention to fly Thomas Hobson to Melbourne, but she added “Let’s keep our fingers crossed”.
Good luck to the connections, but I believe that it will be tough for this horse to win the race which “stops a nation”.
Yesterday we did quite well, with the first winner and the exacta which paid in the UK 42/1, then Gossamer Wings (USA) (Scat Daddy) got placed at a good price, we were completely out of tune in the Cup, but we recovered with the extremely good Sangarius (GB) (Kingman): when I saw him in the pre – parade ring (high quality horse) I reinforced my stake, and he duly obliged in a very good style, at an unexpected price, 5/4, but his SP was at the end 11/10.
He may need further in time.
Yesterday, very likely the battle between the layers and the punters finished without winners and losers: today will be the key to know the winner.
I have to say that Mustashry (GB) (Tamayuz) should get this race in his pocket as he seems to me different class than the others (you should get 3/1 or better).
Also the Timeform, adjusted for the race, gives him the top rating of 131.
Unfortunately, the pace will be quite weak.
At 3.00PM GMT Howcroft Industrial Suppliers Champagne Stakes, 7f6y, Gr-2, 2yo colts & gelding, with a total prize money of £ 75,000.
The “High Rollers” can lump on Too Darn Hot (GB) (Dubawi) and his price, which should be around 2/1 on, is quite attractive, even if the pace with be weak.
She could be a real Champion in the making and he has already annihilated the horses he found on his way.
He is a full brother of Lah Ti Dar (GB), who is the favourite for the William Hill St. Leger.
Dark Vision (IRE) (Dream Ahead) could be an idea for the exacta: he is unbeaten and was sold recently to Godolphin for big money and his trainer, Mark Johnston has broken the record concerning wins in the history of the British turf.
A 3.35PM GMT William Hill St. Leger, 13/4m115y, Gr-2, for 3yo colts & fillies, with a total prize money of £ 743,000.
Most of the pundits think that Lah Ti Dar (GB) (Dubawi) will take a lot of beating.
My concern is her experience (she ran only three times) and the distance.
Her second dam is Darara (IRE) (Top Ville), who is a half sister to Darshaan (GB) (Shirley Heights), great sire and great sire of broodmares.
Darara was one of the first broodmares that Lord Andrew Lloyd – Webber (the top composer in the world in the modern era) bought: I was at Goffs, in Ireland, the day when Charlie Gordon – Watson bid 500,000 Irish Punts, on his behalf, to get her from HH the Aga Khan’s draft.
Kew Gardens (IRE) (Galileo), a Group 1 winner in France, is the main danger.
My odds will be 2/1 each of the two, but at the moment they are 7/4 (the filly) and 5/2 the colt.
I must say that I’ll probably lean towards the colt.
The pace will be very strong.
I’ll also have the exacta Lah Ti dat to bet Kew Gardens as a saver.
Let’s move to Leopardstown in Ireland.
Unfortunately, I’ll not get a seat in the chopper which will take Paul Smith, Derrick Smith’s son, James Doyle, Ryan Moore & Co. to the track to ride in those fantastic races.
I’ll fly to the Dublin on Sunday morning and I’ll be at the Curragh, for the second day of the Champions Day.
At 5.25PM GMT Coolmore Fastnet Rock Matron Stakes, 1m, Gr-1, for 3yo fillies and mares, with a total prize money of € 350,000.
At any price you’ll be able to find for Alpha Centauri (IRE) (Masterctaftsman), the best horse in training in Europe, have a go.
She will win easily.
At 6.35PM GMT QIPCO Champions Stakes, 11/4m, Gr-1, for 3y0+, with a total prize money of € 1,250,000.
Favourite at 10/11 is Roaring Lion (USA) (Kitten’s Joy), who last time out won well the Juddmonte International Stakes, Gr-1, at York.
On that day Saxon Warrior (JPN) (Deep Impact), on his way to recover from the bug which hit the stable of Aidan O’Brien for quite a long while, coming form off the pace (too much), finished third.
In my opinion on the ground that will be good to firm he is capable to turn the table on the favourite.
He is at 7/2 and I’ll back him each way.
Vibes from Ballydoyle are very high: the rumours are that he is back at the peak of his game and he won the QIPCO 2,000 Guineas, first time out this year!
Good luck!