FOR years we have debated the pros and cons of running early Spring three-year-olds over the 2500-metre journey of the Group 1 Victoria Derby.
There are some who say it is too far and the race should be run over 2000-metres.
The quality of horse engaged some years suggests they are right, but a close look at the combatants this year suggests we have some real stayers.
With some breeders now looking to purchase sires who will throw youngsters with stamina we have a strong, quality line-up headed by horses who have already shown real staying potential.
On paper this year’s renewal of the $2 million Victoria Derby is a four-horse race.
They head the market and the race-book – numbers 1 to 4.
Sydney-trained SHADOW HERO ($3.50 fav) deserves to be favourite – he’s tough, strong, stays and arguably has the best ‘form’ heading into the race.
He comes into the Derby with a last start Group 1 win in the Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) beating last week’s Cox Plate runner-up Castelvecchio.
No form-line under any horse in this field has that quality.
Before that Spring Champion triumph he was a runaway winner of the Group 3 Gloaming Stakes over 1800-metres – a truly brilliant win.
He’s by super-sire Pierro, who is developing a habit of throwing top horses who thrive at any distance, which is a Danehill-like ability.
One of his main rivals on Saturday will be the Ken Keys-trained SOUL PATCH, a son of Cox Plate winner Shamus Award.
He was luckless in the Caulfield Guineas when coming from last to run eighth behind Super Seth, before a stunning tearaway win in last week’s AAMI Vase at Moonee Valley.
There is a real sense of timing with SOUL PATCH, who has already been $6.50 into $4.40 since the barrier draw was done on Tuesday.
He looks likely to follow the speed from barrier two and judging on how strong he was at the end of 2040-metres last week, the extra trip will not be an issue.
Perhaps the real X-factor horse in this Derby line-up is THOUGHT OF THAT ($3.80), an exciting son of international superstar racehorse So You Think.
A little less than four weeks ago trainer Ciaron Maher sent him to a Donald maiden, only this time with a set of blinkers applied.
He led throughout winning that Maiden by an ever-expanding eight lengths before just 11 days later doing the same thing in the Group 3 $350,000 Norman Robinson Stakes at Caulfield.
His winning margin was three and three-quarter lengths and he looked strong on the line.
There seems little doubt connections will employ similar tactics again given he’s drawn barrier one, a perfect gate from the tricky 2500-metre start at Flemington.
Anthony Freedman’s WARNING ($8.00) looks the other genuine winning chance.
He’s bred to stay all day being by Declaration Of War out of a Galileo mare, and his racing pattern and form suggests he will.
He followed an impressive win in the Listed Super Impose Stakes (1800m) at Flemington with a tough second to THOUGHT OF THAT in the Norman Robinson.
While the winner in that race was in front and out of trouble, WARNING was rearward and wide over the last 600-metres, but showed real strength to keep coming late.
Flemington looks his track given his size and long stride and you can guarantee this bloke will stay all day.
Horses with a first-four chance include INDEPENDENT ROAD ($41), who was galloped on last week so expect improvement here; SOUTHERN MOON ($16) who is a genuine stayer but may lack the class to win the race, and the Chris Waller-trained RELUCENT ($16) who shows good ability and was ridden upside down at Geelong last time.
For mine SOUL PATCH has emerged at the right time to win this Victoria Derby, with SHADOW HERO the main danger.
Good luck!
