HOW do you measure backing a horse with the most ability in a race versus drawing the worst barrier?
With great difficulty may I suggest.
Perhaps the most significant variable in assessing form for thoroughbred racing is barrier draws.
Leon Macdonald’s DALASAN is a warm $3.30 favourite to win the $2 million Caulfield Guineas (1600m) and along with it a price-tag nearing $20 million.
One of the few genuine stallion-making races in Victoria, the Caulfield Guineas carries plenty of prize-money, but more importantly, huge prestige among breeders.
For one lucky set of owners winning this race with a well-bred colt is akin to winning Powerball – the financial rewards can be astounding!
For DALASAN and new rider Hugh Bowman a challenge awaits.
Bowman, who has never ridden the son of Dalakhani in a race before, has admitted publicly since the barrier draw was conducted earlier this week he faces a daunting task.
He is also well and truly prepared to take that challenge on head-first believing he has what it talks and certainly believes the horse has the ability to get the job done.
The 1600-metre start at Caulfield can be tricky, particularly the wider you draw.
Our best form judges will attest the last thing you want to be doing in a race at Caulfield is working hard when climbing the so-called ‘hill’ just after the 1400-metre point.
It has brought about the defeat of many a good horse at Caulfield.
In recent years the previously unbeaten Pierro for Gai Waterhouse suffered his first defeat under very similar circumstances in this race when forced to work up the hill early.
DALASAN will start from barrier 18 – the outside gate – following the withdrawal of the Peter and Paul Snowden-trained CREATOR on Thursday.
Already this Spring wide barriers have caused the defeat of several highly fancied runners in feature races.
It cost HOMESMAN the Underwood Stakes and as recently as last week at Flemington both MYSTIC JOURNEY and MR QUICKIE were clear victims of wide gates in the Turnbull Stakes.
The question punters have to ask themselves is “how will Bowman ride this horse from the gates”?
Does he go forward along with the early speed and look for a spot neat the lead, risking a wide berth, or does he do the conservative thing and go back at the start.
It’s a massive question with the unknown answer probably holding the key to the race.
For mine, because of DALASAN’S wide gate, this Guineas has a lot more winning chances than punters might have originally thought.
For mine the Anthony Freedman trained-SUPER SETH is the horse to beat and he’s a $12 chance.
He has already won three of six starts, including the Group 3 McNeil Stakes, and his last start fifth in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude was an exceptional effort after missing the start.
This son of boom young sire Dundeel made up an amazing amount of ground over the last 600-metres and from what I saw last time a clean getaway here makes him the one to beat.
David Vandyke’s ALLIGATOR BLOOD looks a very serious galloper.
He’s by All Too Hard, ironically the horse who beat Pierro in this race and he’s also unbeaten five from five.
His dominant on-pace win in the Guineas Prelude was clearly no fluke and his go-forward style of racing should quickly put away his wide barrier draw of 13.
Chris Waller, the hero of last week’s racing across the nation, will throw the saddle on the lightly-raced KUBRICK, another with a genuine winning chance.
He has won two of just five starts and finished a solid fifth behind Bivouac in the Group 1 Golden Rose (1400m) in Sydney last time.
KUBRICK, like DALASAN, has a wide gate.
He is a natural get-back run-on horse so it may not be as significant as it could be for the favourite.
For mine SUPER SETH is a fabulous bet each-way at the odds (given a clean start) with the dangers being ALLIGATOR BLOOD, DALASAN and KUBRICK.
