THE racing game is an ever-changing, ever-evolving industry and tomorrow’s Group 1 $1 million Memsie Stakes (1400m) is real proof of that.
The mighty mare Winx may be retired but almost on cue Sydney’s brilliant ALIZEE has slotted into the ‘spot’. (And that’s not to mention Tasmania’s darling Mystic Journey who’s not running in the Memsie).
It’s an old but very good cliché – one door shuts and another one opens!
Let’s not for one second suggest ALIZEE or Mystic Journey are in Winx’s league, but the fact two outstanding mares are stealing the limelight is proof this game never stands still.
TABCORP has marked the Godolphin-owned ALIZEE the $3.30 favourite to capture the first Group 1 of the season, with WA’s veteran SCALES OF JUSTICE on the second line of betting at $5.00.
Both are coming off brilliant first-up wins – ALIZEE in the Group 2 $200,000 Missile Stakes (1200m) and SCALES OF JUSTICE in the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes (1200m).
Interestingly, SCALES OF JUSTICE then went to Adelaide where he was beaten into second place in the Group 2 Spring Stakes (1200m) when an odds-on favourite.
His astute trainer, Lindsay Smith, says we shouldn’t worry about that suggesting a couple of things didn’t quite go to plan on the day.
Not to mention the winner, Dalasan, is an exciting three-year-old colt who has now won three of four starts, along with a second at Flemington.
The old-man of Australian weight-for-age racing – HARTNELL – is marked a $7.00 chance to upset his stable-mate ALIZEE.
Last start P. B. Lawrence Stakes runner-up CLIFF’S EDGE is on the next line of betting at $7.50.
So, how do we work this race out?
Potentially ALIZEE, from the wide gate, will not get involved early given there will be speed from CLIFF’S EDGE, SE SI BON, DESPATCH, BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER and FUNDAMENTALIST.
Hall Of Fame rider Damien Oliver has a knack of getting into the right place at the right time, particularly in Group races.
A likely genuine speed gives ALIZEE and Oliver the chance to track into the race from about the 600-metres which should be the perfect scenario.
The brilliant daughter of Sepoy ticks a lot of boxes going into this Memsie.
She’s a Group 1 winner over this distance (of the Futurity Stakes) on the track; she has a stunning seven wins from 14 starts on good ground; her second-up record is strong and she has the services of Oliver – not to mention her trainer James Cummings is white hot at present!
For all that we don’t yet know any potential track pattern and the weather forecast suggests there will not be any rain.
For mine, this race sets-up well for the likely leader, CLIFF’S EDGE.
He was outstanding first-up in the Lawrence Stakes when he led and was run down late by Mystic Journey, beaten just three-quarters of a length.
This week he’s a run fitter, will appreciate the firmer ground and has drawn low for in-form rider Mark Zahra. At the odds I’d be prepared to back him on a 1 x 2 basis.
SCALES OF JUSTICE is an intriguing runner given he’s on the comeback trail from serious injury.
A winner of the Group 1 Railway in WA, SCALES OF JUSTICE is clearly good enough to win the race, it’s now a matter of whether his seven-year-old body can stand the rigours of racing at the highest level.
The return to the track of ever-green BLACK HEART BART adds great interest and the appearance of HARTNELL is always a highlight.
Rising star BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER ($7.50) adds another twist to an already tantalising affair.
This renewal of the Memsie Stakes pretty much has it all – class, intrigue and unknowns.
For mine, CLIFF’S EDGE each-way ahead of ALIZEE is the way I’ll be attacking the race.
Good luck!
