The Group 2 $200,000 P. B. Lawrence Stakes (1400m) is one of the traditional big-race building blocks to the Spring majors, and this year’s renewal is no different.
We have the serious clash of the rising star, MYSTIC JOURNEY ($2.00) and the proven experienced wily old campaigner in HARTNELL ($4.40).
As always there are quality stayers resuming who will no doubt be better suited over longer trips, yet always capable of sprinting brilliantly while fresh.
They include dual Australian Cup winner HARLEM ($51), last year’s Group 1 $2 million Mackinnon Stakes winner TRAP FOR FOOLS ($26), MV Crystal Mile winner CLIFF’S EDGE ($7.50), Blamey Stakes and Ajax Stakes winner FIFTY STARS ($7.50), and dual Group 1 winning mare KENEDNA ($15).
It is these contests that make the early season WFA races intriguing and often very difficult for punters.
TABCORP feels the flying Tasmanian filly, now mare, MYSTIC JOURNEY, is clearly the horse to beat installing her a sizzling hot $2.00 favourite.
HARTNELL, now nine-years of age is a past winner and runner-up of this race and has a truly remarkable record at Caulfield.
From eight starts there he has two wins and five placings, while he’s two wins and two placings from just four starts at this track and trip.
Wet or dry it doesn’t seem to bother HARTNELL, already the winner of 13 races and a breath away from having $7 million in the bank for Godolphin.
MYSTIC JOURNEY has been a revelation since bringing a hot local record in Tasmania to the mainland last season.
She is the winner of her last six starts which include stunning victories at Flemington in the Group 1 Australian Guineas against the colts and the $5 million All Star Mile against all-comers.
Trainer Adam Trinder has prepped her for this via two winning trials on the synthetic surface at Devonport.
Under the WFA conditions of the Lawrence MYSTIC JOURNEY comes in with the lightest weight (56.5kgs) and has a perfect barrier (2) for regular rider Anthony Darmanin.
From three preparations she has won twice first-up, is unbeaten two from two at 1400-metres, and has had one go around Caulfield for a stunning runaway win in the Listed Jim Moloney Stakes last September.
She has had one exposure to soft ground when a comfortable winner in the Lyons Stakes, beating the talented Hellova Street at Elwick in Hobart earlier this year.
Given the scarcity of go-forward horses on paper, chances are MYSTIC JOURNEY will settle fourth or fifth and more than likely be in the right place on the home turn to get the job done.
The only unappealing aspect of MYSTIC JOURNEY in the Lawrence Stakes is the short price.
One could definitely argue HARTNELL will take beating, but with every minute of drying weather firming the track his winning chances diminish for mine, while CLIFF’S EDGE, FIFTY STARS and KENEDNA all have to give her weight.
I’m not a favourite tipper as a rule but for mine MYSTIC JOURNEY looks a comfortable winner.
CLIFF’S EDGE, because he’ll go forward and race handy might be the danger or the key for multiples, while HARTNELL, as he’s such a valiant trier is always dangerous and flies at this track and in this race.
The real blowout might be TRAP FOR FOOLS who is nicely drawn and will get a cheap run on the rails and might run into a place at big odds.
Good luck everyone!