Horse Racing » Flemington Jul 5 Comments and Selections by Peter Ellis (Updated)

Flemington Jul 5 Comments and Selections by Peter Ellis (Updated)

Sure Knee. Image: Racing Photos, Brett Holburt.

Assessed: soft 5

Race 1:

  1. El Questro (4)
  2. Pop Queen (2)
  3. Pria Eclipse [3]
  4. Ice Girl (5)

El Questro has hit a career high this campaign scoring easy wins Lakeside 1200m and Hillside 1400m, albeit on soft and heavy. Drawn to get a cushy run.

Pop Queen found the drop back to 1200m against her at Sale but right on song when cruising to victory over this route a fortnight ago. Up 3.5kg.

Pria Eclipse has had plenty of racing this year [13 starts] but continues to run to the mark. Looked home when broke clear in straight 2nd Caulfield 1600m last Saturday.

Ice Girl deserves a change of luck. Caught in traffic 1/2L 5th King’s Brook this route then slow away and in worst ground 4th Pop Queen.

Ambitious Gem  [7] talented 4yo worked home strongly when returning over unsuitable 1100m at Seymour, suggesting she can run a race at big odds.

 

Race 2:

  1. Masculino (3)
  2. Second Bullet (2)
  3. Tan Tat Trusting (4)
  4. The Statesman [7]

Masculino hit a purple patch of form during this period last year – including a dominant victory this route – and is going equally as well, doing it as his leisure Caulfield 1800m last Saturday.

Second Bullet has been freshened since failing to handle soft ground at Caulfield last month. Invariably improves at Flemington and is well weighted.

Tan Tat Trusting can be forgiven latest 6th this course when settled back in a “dash home”. Raced handier when successful in Swan Hill Cup [1600m] before that.

The Statesman [7] English import who scored over this course and distance in first local campaign. Worked home stylishly when resuming over 1600m at Sandown.

 

Race 3:

  1. Mr Exclusive (3)
  2. Buffalo River (1)
  3. Heavenly Emperor (5)
  4. Phoneme 4]

Mr Exclusive, underrated gelding did all the chasing when swamped late by Heavenly Emperor this route then had to be used early 2nd in-form Sure Knee. Good value on both totes.

Buffalo River showed potential in four starts for John Gosden in England and has impressed in both local appearances leading throughout Ballarat 1400m before scoring much easier at Sandown.

Heavenly Emperor has improved with each start since transferring from New Zealand towelling maidens Bendigo 1300m before charging to victory this route June 8. Withdrawn at barrier June 22.

Phoneme [4] wasn’t disgraced behind older gallopers of a short break at Sandown and is certain  to be doing his best work late.

Asgard Massif [2] has hit a career high this campaign and while he is a query at 1600m that could be offset by small field and muddling tempo.

Race 4:

  1. Beau Balmain (5)
  2. Last Week (4)
  3. Mawaany Machine (2)
  4. Chouxting The Mob (1)
  5. Flow Meter (7)

Beau Balmain won two of four when trained in Germany and has created a good impression in two starts for Jim Conlon closing steadily Caulfield 2000m and Sandown 2100m.

Last Week showed tremendous staying promise  in his first two preps but failed to deliver last spring. Latest efforts encouraging although he did have every opportunity.

Mawaany Machine, Irish import wasn’t knocked about behind Dr Drill on second local start then ridden much more positively when successful Sandown 2100m.

Chouxting The Mob faces a much tougher task with 60kg after carrying 54kg and 54.5kg in his past two victories over this course and distance while Observational [6] didn’t let down on soft 7 here last time but has serious claims on previous 3rd Chouxting The Mob.

 

Rubisaki. Image: Racing Photos, Brett Holburt.

Race 5:

  1. Rubisaki (3)
  2. Hi Stranger (6)
  3. Cassius (1)
  4. Pancho (2)

Rubisaki should be undefeated just missing at Warrnambool before effortless wins Seymour 1200m and 1400m this course. Shapes as through she’ll run a strong mile.

Hi Stranger has improved with each start closing from rear when 3rd behind Rubisaki over 1400m a  fortnight ago, indicating he’ll relish the extra 200m.

Cassius did plenty wrong when 4th in juvenile feature at Swan Hill but was much more tractable when a dashing winner over 1600m at Bendigo.

Pancho defied the race pattern when a narrow winner at Sandown then given a torrid ride when 5th Rubisaki.

Night Passage [13] found the 1200m too short 5th Sebrakate on debut this course but was strong at line when taking on 3yo’s over 1600m at Swan Hill.

Race 6:

  1. American In Paris (5)
  2. Not A Single Cent (2)
  3. Dogmatic (1)
  4. Igniter (3)

American In Paris has been set impossible essays in his past two starts but did posted excellent closing sectionals. Placed in VRC St Leger [2800m] here four starts ago.

Not A Single Cent lost his way after winning Gr. 2 Sires but recent 6th Mr Quickie in Qld Derby [2400m] was encouraging. Disregard subsequent 5th when lumped 61kg on heavy tack.

Dogmatic has gone to a new level this prep and is a proven weight carrier lumping 60kg Lakeside 2100m and Caulfield 2000m last Saturday when never stopped trying.

Igniter, well bred colt all at sea on the soft a Caulfield but must be respected on previous head 2nd Declares War 2000m this course.

Wealthy Wolf [9] only warmed up over the final 200m when 2nd stable mate Dunman over 2400m at Sandown

Race 7:

  1. Malibu Style (2)
  2. Invincible Al (6)
  3. Halvorsen (9)
  4. Sirius Suspect (10)

Malibu Style beat a better field when carrying a similar weight in listed contest at Sandown last spring and is going equally as well just failing behind Bandipur at Caulfield and Jungle Edge at Lakeside.

Invincible Al needs the breaks to fall his way but has run some slashing races over the straight course at Flemington. Senior rider a major plus.

Halvorsen peaked final 100m when coming off a six-week break 2nd Gytrash 1000m this course then gave too much start in “sprint home” 5th listed Creswick this route.

Sirius Suspect has come back well for new stable posting career best 3rd Order Of Command in listed Straight Six then chased hard up 58kg when steeping out to 1400m.
Milwaukee [3] back to his best following an extended break with two wins and a close second in his past three starts, all in Flemington sprints.

 

Race 8:

  1. Mr Marathon Man (1)
  2. Reykjavik (9)
  3. Waging War (4)
  4. Hellova Street (2)

Mr Marathon Man, French listed winner only peaked final 100m after doing too much early 4th this course then ridden much more patiently when scoring under 60kg Lakeside 1600m.

Reykjavic boasts a solid record in WA and has caugt the eye in two local starts. Thwarted by muddling speed in Topaz then wide 3rd Romancer this course. .

Waging War has taken longer to find form this year but is back on track winning Parks 1550m before 2nd Mr Marathon Man when went too early.

Hellova Street, bold going Tasmanian who is certain to derive great benefit from 6th Blazejowski 1400m this course June 8,. Expected to be more proactive.

Radipole [6] close up in Group 1 over this route last season and was good on resumption. Value.

 

Race 9:

  1. Sure Knee (1)
  2. Fabric (3)
  3. Collectable (6)
  4. Bentoite (2)

Sure Knee continues to hold her form and is well treated under 60kg after lumping that weight to an easy win against the boys two weeks ago.

Fabric was ultra impressive beating subsequent winner Aristocratic Miss over 1400m at this course before struggling on soft when 3rd at Caulfield last Saturday.

Collectable was competitive behind group 1 performers Verry Eleegant and Aristia last spring and will improve back on a drier  surface.

Benitoite is progressing through her grades although would probably prefer it softer while Shamal Lass [8] was impressive at Geelong and did have excuses when 8th Fabric.

 

 

BEST:               SURE KNEE

EACH-WAY:     AMERICAN IN PARIS

VALUE:             MR EXCLUSIVE

 

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