Top English trainer William Haggas and his stable jockey Tom Marquand make another of their increasingly commonplace raids on Australian racing in Sydney this weekend.
The pair are looking to add to their considerable haul of dollar denominated riches through Al Mubhir, who takes on raging hot favourite Via Sistina in the group 1 Ranvet Stakes.
Even with the Haggas’ propensity for pulling rabbits out of a hat – Lake Forest’s dramatic come from behind win in last spring’s Golden Eagle being the latest demonstration – it is hard to see Al Mubhir having much chance of causing an upset if the form book is anything to go by.
Then again, as results have proved so often, strict formlines don’t always apply when translating northern hemisphere performances and ratings to Australian potential: so often well credentialled and expensively acquired gallopers fail to deliver when sent to these shores, while comparatively lower rated horses can make massive improvement and bely the status they achieved in England.
Not that that is any kind of push for the Haggas representative tomorrow: even if he relishes some sun on his back in what would be the tail end of an English winter, even if the ground conditions, the race pace, the wind direction and everything else is configured in his favour, it is hard to see him downing Via Sistina – or many others for that matter.
If he does it will be yet another indictment on the calibre of virtually all of the middle distance gallopers (Pride of Jenni an honourable exception) produced in this country, although Via Sistina, who only arrived here after proving herself group 1 calibre in Europe, has already done so in coruscating fashion on numerous occasions already.
Al Mubhir could only finish third of seven last time out in a back end conditions event at Nottingham in October (Nottingham is a decent venue but few high grade horses run there these days bar the occasional well bred two year old making his or her debut or seeking to shed their maiden status).
Prior to that he was last of eight in a group 3 contest at Newmarket a couple of weeks earlier.
However, such has been Haggas’ success in Australia with older gallopers who were short of the absolute top echelon in Europe that no-one can blame him for having another shy at the stumps here: after all,even third place in the seven horse Ranvet field would net him $96,000, more than the entire prizemoney allocated for his last UK start in a listed contest.
Pride of place on a day when both Melbourne and Sydney host group 1 races goes to the annual scamper of the Golden Slipper.
Over it’s near 70 year history,the Rosehill contest has become one of, if not the, defining race on the Australian turf given that it reflects perfectly the premium put upon speed and precocity by the local industry.
It is, of course, proud to boast that it is the world’s richest two year old race, but that doesn’t mean the winners will go on to distinguish themselves in the future.
Last year’s heroine Lady of Camelot has acquitted herself well through this season without being a superstar, but go back over her recent predecessors and the story is not so rosy.
Shinzo, Fireburn, Stay Inside, Farnan, Kiamichi and Estijaab all had their greatest days at Rosehill at the end of their juvenile campaign. For most contestants the truth will be that their future is all behind them as slower developing but often more talented rivals come to the fore in later years. Not that that matters to the breeding industry which will, of course, snap up any Slipper winning colt and market him with the greatest of ballyhoo – until at least his first couple of crops hit the track!
It wasn’t always that way, of course: Pierro, the 2012 winner, was a rattling good three year old who was placed in the Caulfield Guineas, Cox Plate and the Doncaster as well as winning the group 1 Canterbury Stakes and George Ryder Stakes in the autumn of his three year old career.
His predecessor, Sepoy, also trained on very well, winning the group 1 Manikato Stakes and Coolmore Stakes en route to earning the title of Australian champion three year old of 2012.
It is, perhaps inevitable that there will be outstanding winners, so – so winners and those who don’t go on, as is so often the way with races confined to a certain age group. No-one knows how good any particular crop is until a few years have elapsed.
Not so tried and tested races like the William Reid Stakes, the centrepiece of The Valley card in Melbourne, where the older battle hardened sprinters front up = as they so often do, year in year out.