City of Troy may well be the superstar galloper that Aidan O’Brien believes him to be, and the European racing world fervently hopes he turns out to be.
But even if he succeeds in the first major all age test of the European season in the early hours of Sunday morning (AEST) in Sandown’s Eclipse Stakes, we won’t really be much the wiser.
Given that he has 10 ratings points (about 4.5 kilos) on the bare numbers above his closest rival Al Riffa (not to mention the three year old allowance which sees him receive upwards of 7 pounds, just over 3 kilos) from three of his seven rivals, victory should be a foregone conclusion for the impressive Derby winner.
He will, of course, demonstrate that he can drop back to 2000 metres from the 2400 metres of the Derby, so another box will be ticked.
The likelihood of a softish surface (the amount of rain that has fallen in what passes for an English summer is even greater than that the locals usually tolerate) should not hold any fears given that he has already won group one contests with plenty of give in the ground.
O’Brien swerved the Irish Derby last week with his Epsom hero, giving him an extra weekend to recover from his exertions.
He didn’t really need his top line three year old anyway as Las Vegas, his stable companion who ran third at Epsom, stepped forward in fine style in what was a thrilling contest, seeing off Sunway and Ambiente Friendly (the Derby runner up) in good style.
The biggest danger for City of Troy, should he underperform, could be another three year old in Dancing Gemini.
The Roger Teal trained colt finished sixth at Epsom, looking as if he could be involved in the shake up only to run out of gas in the closing stages. The drop in distance should surely suit the son of Camelot, who had finished a close second in the French 2000 Guineas at his penultimate start.
Perhaps the most interesting runner aside from City of Troy is Royal Ascot winner Jayarebe, one of only a handful of winners that Brian Meehan has sent out this year.
Under regular pilot Sean Leavey he showed much improved form to beat the unlucky favourite Kings Gambit in the Hampton Court Stakes: that is still miles away from anything that his fellow three year old City of Troy has achieved, but at least he should still have plenty of upside given that the Eclipse will be only his sixth race start and he seems to be getting better with time.
Ghostwriter is another three year old with place claims given he has finished fourth in two Classics this season, the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket behind Notable Speech and in the French Derby (Prix du Jockey Club) behind Look De Vega. But the average winning distance of his sire Invincible Spirit’s progeny is just 1500 metres , suggesting this 2000 metre trip may find him wanting at the business end again.
The biggest talking point in many ways about this year’s Eclipse is the relative weakness of the field and the lack of star older horses and big names, the favourite aside.
It only has eight runners, the same size field as the Irish Derby seven days earlier. It rarely is a cavalry charge but no one would argue that a more competitive field at Sandown on Saturday (and at the Curragh last week) would have at least encouraged more wagering and wider interest in both contests.
The Irish Derby, in particular, seems to be feeling the squeeze although in it’s defence it did attract the second and third from Epsom this year, both of whom ran storming races.
Las Vegas owner and Coolmore stalwart John Magnier made a strong plea not to tinker with the race and reduce its distance from 2400 metres to 2000, as the French did earlier this century, but there are some dissenting voices who argue that shortening the trip might make it a more attractive target to foreign raiders.
Others agree with Magnier, but suggest that the date might be changed, with some suggesting it might form a brilliant double header later in July with the Irish Oaks on a Saturday and the Derby on a Sunday.
All of these races are, of course, hugely important for the breeding industry, and in the end any changes made by the European Pattern Committee would almost certainly have to meet with breeders approval. Given breeders diverse interests and specialities that might not be easy.
However, like all sports, racing needs to sniff the wind, anticipate market tastes and do all it can to generate compelling competition which appeals to the purist (happy to watch a $1.25 favourite go round and dominate his opposition) and the punter, who would much prefer a 16 runner event with betting on the first four and a market leader priced at 5/1.