We’ve been down this road before – as recently as last year – but there is no certainty that the outcome will be the same.
As financial planners are always keen to point out, past performance is no predictor of future outcome, and that is especially so in the case of this year’s Derby favourite City of Troy.
Will he replicate the effort last year of Aidan O’Brien’s Auguste Rodin, and turn around a well below par 2000 Guineas effort to race to Epsom glory?
Or will the galloper whom O’Brien constantly refers to as one of the best (if not the best, although that is a refrain heard from the Ballydoyle maestro nearly every season about one of his potential wonder horses) bomb out a second time in succession.
Auguste Rodin came back in fine style for Ryan Moore and O’Brien 12 months ago, putting behind him the nightmare of Newmarket when he put in a lacklustre display. At Epsom he showed plenty of grit and determination to see off King of Steel in a tight finish to claim the Blue Riband event.
City of Troy has to make a similarly impressive recovery to shrug off the memory of an even worse display down the Rowley Mile at the beginning of May. Promiment early, he was a spent force by halfway in the 1600 metre classic and although Moore was easy on him when it became apparant that his chance had gone it was inexplicable how poorly he had run.
After all City of Troy, far more than Auguste Rodin, had been the outstanding two year old of his generation, his unbeaten juvenile career culminating in an impressive win in Britain’s most important two year old race, the 1400 metre Dewhurst Stakes.
O’Brien was as non plussed as anyone after the Newmarket debacle and it wasn’t until a few days later that he confessed he may have erred in City of Troy’s preparation, giving the colt too easy a time ahead of his seasonal debut because he ”treated him like a God”, thinking he would be able to accomplish something ordinary horses could not.
To err, as they say is human, and to forgive divine, and City of Troy can prove himself the equal of some of the turf’s equine deities if he can add his name to the honour roll at Epsom in the early hours of Sunday morning (AEST).
At the five day stage there were plenty of owners and trainers prepared to take a gamble that the son of Justify would not bounce back with as many as 20 potential opponents a possiblity.
That is likely to dwindle a bit by post time (not the least because O’Brien may switch one of his, French 2000 Guineas fourth Diego Velazquez, to Chantilly for Sunday’s French Derby.
But why wouldn’t you have a shy at the stumps in these circumstances, with so many question marks hanging over the potential superstar.
James Fanshawe’s Ambiente Friendly is second favourite after storming to success in the Lingfield Derby Trial, and while it would be a popular victory for the long established Newmarket trainer there are plenty who will be sparing a thought for young rider Callum Shepherd if Ambiente Friendly does follow up his Lingfield success.
Shepherd has piloted him in the past but 90 year old owner Bill Gredley pulled rank and replaced the young rider with veteran Robert Havlin, for so long the second jockey to Frankie Dettori at the powerful John Gosden yard.
Gredley pays the bills and believes that the 50 year old Havlin’s experience will be invaluable over the switchback Epsom track even though Havlin is not renowned as a group 1 rider, rarely getting the opportunity to ride Gosden’s stable elect.
Nevertheless he can get the job done when given the ammunition – as he showed at Newbury in mid May when he steered Gosden’s second string, Audience, to a comfortable win in the 1600 metre group 1 Lockinge Stakes, leaving the likes of multiple group 1 winning stablemate Inspiral and star French raider Big Rock trailing.
O’Brien will, as ever, field multiple runners with recent Leopardstown winner Las Vegas also strongly fancied.
Whatever happens the Derby will be one of the most watched races in the world this year, even though there is no certainty that the winner will turn out to be an out and out champion.
In fact it is more likely that a handful of the beaten brigade will, at some point, turn up for a staying race in Melbourne or Sydney over the next 12 months with a few likely to be sold to Australian interests over the next few months.